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Rap Sheet

Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

03/09/17 at 6:50 AM CST

 

 

READ: 4

RPLY: 4

0

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Sentiment:

Neutral

Wells Fargo rates CIEN Overweight

We think our Ciena thesis remains intact and believe weakness following fiscal first-quarter results is likely to present an attractive entry point.

We reduce our fiscal 2017 Ciena earnings-per-share estimate from $1.74 to $1.71, but keep our fiscal 2018 EPS estimate of $1.98 and $30-$32 target range.

 

[We rate Ciena at Overweight.]

jon, lt cap,

I must be missing something 'terrible' in CIEN's numbers, because I don't find anything that egregious to give it a 10% or so (including today) haircut. Like Jon, I wrote calls, but it ended upas a net loss (compared to another 'victory' on Jon's call, lol). I'll look at premiums as I might just re-option them.

The analysts seem fairly positive. Saw one with a (reiterated I think) buy and a PT of $34. go figure


Agr :0

Dis :0

RECS:0

None

Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

03/09/17 at 3:20 PM CST

I am thinking of buying more, but through my wife's account which means she has to buy it. eps: FY2016: 1.38, FY2017 (est) 1.71, FY2018 (est) 1.98. Growth should continue at 15-20% for next 5 years. Current PE of ~14 next year PE of ~12. Not a super expensive stock for growth potential which I think is fairly solid. I think the selling is for a number of things. 1. People bought over past 1-2 weeks expecting better earnings and are just getting out. 2. Stock sell window is open for employees who have been blacked out from selling and likely have some gains from previous discounted ESPP pucrchases. 3. BoA downgraded on Mar 3.  4. TA. 25 range seems to coincide closely with previous tops. 5. General profit taking. Still above most of its end of day prices over past year.

I think it is likely to break out at some point and possibly hit the $30 price targets. Based on growth and FY 18 estimates which I believe are very manageable, it could happen within a year - but maybe closer to the end of that time frame.


Agr :0

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Author:

breinejm

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

03/09/17 at 5:42 PM CST

I believe that CIEN has room to improve.  Particularly its gross margins.  This should be no problem with the upcoming cycle of network upgrades, it should lift all boats.  Telecom Service Providers will have to open their wallets sooner or later, the past year and a half was plagued by consolidation among providers and a tightening of CapEx budgets, this can last only so long.

I believe that CIEN and INFN are decent bets over the next 24 moths.


Agr :2

Dis :0

RECS:0

Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

03/10/17 at 5:19 PM CST

Nokia has finally perked up.  I believe that what I expected to happen earlier, much earlier, has started to happen.  True to form, I was too early in this investment, however, I continue to firmly believe that the long term story is intact. I continue to be very heavily invested in it, I added some 10K shares, starting around $4.30 and as recent as low $5s to what was already a large position.  The overall industry is now in much firmer grounds.  Ericsson's CEO has now stated he is concentrating on margins, what this means is that the price wars of last year are now in the past. This is yuge, LOL.  Seriously, it is huge, this sets the tone for a normal industry rather than one distorted by a desperate player, trying to preserve market share.

 

Fix 5G wireless may give wireline in the access network (neighborhoods or last mile as it is also known) a true run for its money.  I foresee wireless eventually replacing all wireline in the access network.  It makes perfect sense and will be much cheaper to maintain.  

As such, Verizon, Comcast (and all the other cables networks), AT&T will over the very long term switch their TV and Internet access networks to fixed wireless.  


Agr :0

Dis :0

RECS:0

None

Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

03/10/17 at 5:35 PM CST

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