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THQ Analysis: Time To Buy?
by Perry H. Rod,
Published: October 23rd, 2011 4:16 PM EDT
Last year, and for the last few years, I had been warning people
to stay away from THQ Inc (NASDAQ:THQI).
I have also been shorting THQI on and off for the last few years,
enjoying those trades.
First, when the current generation began, I warned that THQ was a
"shovel-ware" game maker that would get destroyed by Nintendo's
rise in the kids' game market. In 2008, THQI lost 80% of its
value as a result.
Then, in 2009 I warned that UFC could not become a consistent
annual franchise. I missed the rise in the stock price from
UFC but THQ subsequently underperformed the market in both 2009 and
2010 as UFC's sequel failed to deliver.
In 2010 I warned that Homefront would not save THQ and Udraw would
not sell during the non-holiday months. Right again!
THQ hit a new low this year and bounced back only slightly, still
at a price lower than at any other year this decade.
So I've been very critical of this company and this
management. I think maybe they ought to be thrown out,
frankly. But now I have gone long the company's stock.
Why?
Rockstar and Take Two (NASDAQ:TTWO) get an
'epic fail' grade for not bringing out a sequel to mega-hit Grand
Theft Auto this year. In fact, GTA is starting to become
irrelevant in people's minds with such a long delay between
titles. Saints Row 2 was released only 6 months after GTA4
smashed records in 2008. This time around, there is now
direct competition in the genre for THQ's internal studio,
Volition.
On Amazon.com, I compared the archived best seller ranking of
Saints Row 2 against Saints Row 3 - Saints Row 2 hit the chart two
weeks prior to launch ranked in the 60's. One week prior,
it…
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THQ Analysis: Time To Buy?
Last year, and for the last few years, I had been warning people to
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