I am thinking that the market keeps bouncing around in this wide channel, say S&P 2400 - 2800 though June.  Due to the clear lack of fundamental catalysts. Unless ofcourse we get a tangible and credible US-China deal. 

Regarding the US-China Trade deal effect on the market, I kinda still am in the camp that thinks it is mostly priced in at current market levels.  One caveat: if the market heads down toward the 2400 before we get a deal, and then Trump tweets we have one,I believe that would put a solid floor underneath the market. It could easily go back into the 2800s in a hurry.

Trade has been one of the factors of the global slowdown, removing it at least as it regards to US-China, would lift some of the current concerns for a global recession.  After all, US and China GDP have to be somewhere in the 40 to 50% of global GDP. They are the locomotives of growth.

If all that were to happen, the second half would start to look promising.

What are your expectation regarding a potential China deal with respect to Huawei? I saw that many Euro countries (most of Europe) want to use their tech as they see it as the best, but US, Britain, etc. are very against it. At some point folks will need to make a choice. 

I think the Huawei issue is completely separate from Trade, however, I could be wrong and Trump may be using it as a lever in these Trade talks..  In principle, I think it should be a separate issue.

Huawei is indeed superior at this point.  They have enormous capital resources and much cheaper labor so that is a nice advantage. To be fair, they got this big by outright stealing IP for many years, and used cost as the weapon to grab marketshare. This is one of myy pet peeve against Huawei as well as potential security issues.  IMO, China uses everything they need to spy on the US, just like we do.  It is an espionage war, governments should use all at their disposal. So in my mind Huawei is fair game given all they have stolen.

The US will keep pressuring countries to drop Huawei.  That said, the cycle will benefit all, to different degrees of course.  Nokia's RAN (Radio Access Network) is unfortunately not quite best in class, they need to continue to invest in it to catch up.  However, Nokia offsets that somewhat by having a truly end to end portfolio.  All in all I do believe Ericson and Nokia will come out OK.  Huawei will continue to be number one given that much of Africa, Middle East and South America and possibly the Southeast Asia are still in its camp.

 

lt cap,

Yeah, I read a dismaying story in the NY Times a couple of days ago that showed just how badly Trump is screwing this up. On the one hand, he's trying to sell

blocking Hauwei on the basis of security. Since he''s alienated all our NATO friends, all of them are skeptical of the claim, except England, which is semi-skeptical.

So he's using more bullying tactics, such as telling Poland they won't get US troops on their soil unless they decline business with Hauwei. 

The, just to make sure any shreds of credibility he has left are gone, he indicates that the ban on Hauwei is on the negotiating table in the Chinese trade talks.

So, right you are - why would Western allies (or, former allies, or skeptical allies) take the security push seriously if it's a negotiable point. Either it's a danger

or it's not. What a freaking cheese-head president.

I'm unclear on why, after a very good CC CIEN is dropping steadily, and substantially. It may simply be that it over-priced itself on the huge run up it had.

The shares I bought to option out are clearly underwater. But I'm thinking of whether or not to buy some more, particularly if the price drops farther. I can't

find any news to pin that on.