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Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

01/06/18 at 9:27 AM CST

 

 

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Sentiment:

Neutral

OT: Polyverse

Jamok,

 

Once you asked me about which security company to put money behind.  I now have conviction that Polyverse is a truly revolutionary company when it comes to computer security.  I believe Polyverse is private, the founder was Bill Gates personal security advisor at Microsoft many moons ago.

Read up on it, these guys will revolutionize and maybe, just maybe turn the tables on hackers, and grab a very significant portion of the overall global security business.  Worth many, many billions of $$.

 

If you cannot get to this link (maybe it requires subscription), then I can email it to anyone who is interested.

barrons.com/ar...A&

 

Barron's has a complete article on Polyverse in ths week's online magazine.  I can email it to anyone interested.  The company is indeed small, currently only generating revenue of $10M.


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Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

01/06/18 at 9:40 AM CST

lt cap,

Thanks for bringing attention to the Barron's article. From what I understand of it, given my non-IT mind, I would take a flyer on it, given my belief that the cybersecurity sector can do nothing but grow with each new break-in. I'm not sure there's a way to tell when/if it will have an IPO, or if it will remain private or bought-out by  a larger company. A call to them might answer that. I played PANW a while back for a small profit. But concluded that the rich PEs in the sector reflected assumptions of future growth, rather than current performance. If this new company has a completely new, and more effective, means to block cyber-attacks, yeah, I'll bet some money on that.

Read this article about 5G and CES. It does look like 'real' rollout is likely a 2019-2020 event, I think: 

zdnet.com/ar...later/

I believe there might still be 10% upside to the market, given Trump's gifts in tax reductions and destruction of any oversight or regulation to businesses. Towards that end, I had taken some $ off the table, and re-deployed only a part of it as of last last week into Berkshire B, SPY, and ROBO. ROBO is an etf that tracks 10 firms engaged in robots and AI deployments. It includes one sea-drilling service company that I don't like, but decided to take a shot with it anyway. So far, all 3 are positive by a bit. Some time ago I put some funds into NVDA and ISRG. They both immediately tanked after doing nothing but skyrocketing for the last year or two. After correcting about 10%, NVDA is back at all-time highs, and in the black. I believe they have so many opportunities in so many areas, such as AI autos, that they will continue to flourish, given their ability to execute on their chip-making. ISRG I'm less confident about - there are other AI surgical companies and products in development, but they won't actually hit the market for a while. I consider ISRG's prospects less solid than NVDA's, but that's partly based on my knowing NVDA a good deal better.

When this market falls apart, I think it will be pretty dramatic. The Trump tax and industry policies are what I think will drive things in the short term, but I'm not sure they'll actually have a large lasting effect - being able to dump mining waste into rivers without regulations is the kind of thing that may help boost profits short-term, but it seems to me a little bit like selling your birthright for a bowl of porridge. I see many economists (Krugman, Samuelson) backing away from making predictions about when something will 'go wrong'. Only that when it does, the longer this market inflation valuation goes on, the harder the landing will be.  I was surprised to learn that we're still only the 3rd longest expansion in history. I would've thought we were the longest.


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Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

01/08/18 at 3:19 PM CST

Agree, every long bull market ends in a pretty terrible way.  This one has been quite long and it looks like it could still go on for a bit longer.  I think ROBO could be one of the better ways to play AI and the coming of Robots.  I will check it out, thanks for sharing


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Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

01/09/18 at 6:59 AM CST

lt cap,

I really haven't done my homework on AI/robotics plays - I had intended to look into other possible ETFs that may have been initiated. But my best guess was that the opening part of January would see a Trump-bump in the market, and after my doing nothing for the first couple of trading days, ROBO was one of the plays I decided to jump into. And indeed, it has not had a negative day - yet. And except for that sea-drilling company, I don't have a problem with the composition of the portfolio. Their expense ratio, at .95, is double the average management fee. But really, the fees on ETFs are of the least concern if you're investing for a while. NVDA appears to be getting very heavily involved in AI, and specifically automobile AI, and I'm really bullish on their long term prospects. ROBO really didn't do much of anything in the first few years since its inception. And then in the last 6-12 months it's basically doubled. So I've decided to put just a moderate amount into it and 'ride the tiger' while it's got momentum. Of course, the eminence gris that looms in the background is when is this bull market going to crash and burn.

I came across this article, referencing Alcatel phone designs. I wasn't aware that Alcatel existed in any differentiated way from NOK at this point. Maybe it's just a name NOK licensed to brand phones with?

zdnet.com/ar...545499

Doesn't matter much, it's not of much importance one way or another, I'd think.

 


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Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

01/09/18 at 2:52 PM CST

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