lt cap,
This is a generally tangential reply to your Alibaba question -
don't know a thing about their prospects in particular. Jim Rogers
has been ridiculed on the board before, as an eccentric loon. I
personally like the guy, and admire his foresightedness - ahead of
the curve.
In the 1980's he pounded the table to invest in China, when no
one had that on their radar. He believed that so much that he moved
to Singapor, where his daughters would be schooled in Mandarin.
Because he believed that no matter what happened to China -
economic upheaval, civil war, whatever - that China would become
the world's economic superpower. One factor (among many) is that
their work ethic makes them far more productive than American
workers, who feel a great sense of entitlement. And I suppose all
the other reasons why when the Chinese market retreats, or growth
is rolled back from 9% to 7%, the world markets tremble. Obviously,
the ability to build a middle class and increase wealth and demand
for goods (e..g., Alibaba), internal and external demands, etc.
supports this thesis.
And the 'big one' - I think - will be this: inevitably, the
world's reserve currency will change at some point from the dollar
to ....hard to say - the Yuan maybe, or maybe a basket of
currencies. But when everything on earth is no longer bought and
sold in dollars changes, the biggest beneficiary will likely be
China. In the early 1900's the British pound was the world's
reserve currency. That got change, also. The results are obvious -
British is no longer much an economic nor military power. Their
wars would likely be a lot shorter than our wars, given that they'd
probably get whacked within days without our support.
Well....unless they were fighting the French aka 'Surrender Monkeys
:-)
The one thing that Roger's couldn't have predicted - AI's
ability to make workers irrelevant, which also makes most all
workers all over the world equally useless - Foxconn says it has
already replaced 60,000 workers with computers/industrial
machines/AI devices. An 'unemployable' class, whether it's here or
there equalizes their worth, I think.
0
0
