I've been thinking about T2 and the rest of publishers, why ATVI has been doing so well while the rest have struggled, and what it would take for EA to get back on its feet?  I'm starting to develop this theory that big publishers need at least 3 blockbuster hits, multi-million sellers annually, to be profitable year in and year out. 

Activision, even before the merger with Blizzard, made the jump to the big league with Tony Hawk, then Call of Duty, and followed it up with Guitar Hero.  Those were its anchors, and they went from a run of the mill publishers to be one of the most profitable.  Now they have several, CoD and WoW are the top games, GH should continue to sell several million copies for at least 2-3 more years, and then the rest of the Blizzard lineup.

EA had Madden, FIFA, and Need for Speed.  The constant, 5-10 million sellers every year, until their cost structure mushroomed out of control and NFS lost steam.  They had good games that would plug occasional weaknesses over the years, Lord of the Ring, Harry Potter, Sims, etc...Their recent endeavors, while pretty successful failed to produce that blockbuster hit, Dead Space, Mirror's Edge, Army of Two, were all 1-3 million sellers, not good enough to be annualized and not over that hump to deliver major profit margins.

T2 has GTA, and it's not an annual release.  Midnight Club, like NFS, has lost steam and can no longer be considered a major blockbuster franchise for them.  Bioshock is great, but it's not in that league unless Bioshock 2 delivers 5 million in sales as Zelnick is hoping.  NBA is good, but it doesn't meet that threshold, yet.  Civilization is every 2-3 years, kind of like the Sims for EA but on a smaller scale.  T2 needs at least 1 or preferably 2 more big properties to deliver 4-6 million copies a year just to iron things out between GTA releases. 

THQ has WWE and now UFC, but we'll see if UFC can turn into a consistent multi-million seller year in and year out.  They're on their way though because their size might allow them to be profitable just with two big hits and lots of other fillers.  I don't think Saints Row or Warhammer (or RFG) have reached that threshold, so they could greatly benefit if they can get a breakout hit from an internally-owned IP.  I don't see it at the moment but they've managed to get over the hump, at least temporarily.

Ubisoft has done well (and got lucky with their Wii and DS titles) but I see them struggling going forward.  Assassin's Creed is a mega hit, but it's not annualized.  I see the Tom Clancy titles losing steam and becoming secondary to the rest of war and better shooters out there.  They have great talent and studios so there's always a possibility they produce something special, but they seem to have figured out a way to make profits by putting out a lot of shovelware. 

Just my two cents, would be interested in what others think, it just seems easy for EA and Activision to pull ahead from here, but much harder for the other 3 publishers, unless they join forces and combine into one entity.