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Rap Sheet

Author:

Martin Sambu

Subject:

None

Date:

06/24/09 at 7:35 PM CDT

 

 

READ: 181

RPLY: 5

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0

RECS:0

Sentiment:

Neutral

Happy to get back in touch

Hi friends.

Happy that Rod took the initiative to develop a site we can now all use. Let's get our community back together!!! This site fells more robust than Arena, but might take a bit of time to get use.

So many news since we last exchange post.

Most intriguin to me is why TTWO insiders sold just before releasing a lot of good news (like GTA in PSP). I would think that the reason is that they are honest, but then I remembered all the trading prior to big news + how managment change their contract when EA threaten to adquire, and quickly discarded the honest route.

Launch of GTA PSP makes be a bit more bullish on stock; as they will probably meet 2009 guidance and 2010 should be a strong year.

Anyhow, glad to be posting again.

 

I was actually pretty shocked about the PSP port.  I think what probably happened was they realized that they were wasting a 95 rated game on a console that wasn't allowing the game to get the sales it deserved, so now they're quickly putting it on PSP - probably for $40 - or $32 wholesale

I know that good PSP games can do around 1M worldwide, so given GTA's status if we just apply 1M x about 30M - that, imo would actually be able to replace Bioshock 2 if they delay it and they'll still make the year's earnings.  I think that Zelnick article where he basically said that 'investors are looking for us to breakeven this year and we have to deliver' tells me he has every intention of making it a breakeven year.  So yeah, a 1M shipment of this title in the Q makes me way more confident about the year.


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Author:

Perry Rod

Subject:

None

Sentiment:

Strong Buy

Date:

06/24/09 at 8:31 PM CDT

With the way LCS and VCS sold on the PSP, isn't the PSP port (if done well) likely to crush 1MM? Or are you talking ship-in only?


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Author:

Jon Breiner

Subject:

None

Sentiment:

Buy

Date:

06/25/09 at 7:49 AM CDT

"With the way LCS and VCS sold on the PSP, isn't the PSP port (if done well) likely to crush 1MM? Or are you talking ship-in only?"

good PSP games these days sell something like 500K-1M lifetime.  So 1M ship is mainly because it's the GTA brand name - the top brand name on PSP.  But it's still a port so I'm not sure.  If I'm wrong and they can ship and sell 2M+, that would make it pretty easy for TTWO to beat expectations in Q4 imo (if Bioshock is on time).


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Author:

Perry Rod

Subject:

None

Sentiment:

Strong Buy

Date:

06/25/09 at 10:10 AM CDT

BTW Martin check out C preferreds today - I bought some C-W and C-E a couple days ago.  They are 5th and 6th down the line of preferreds that might be converted to C if not enough C preferred people tender their shares, which I think is a strong possibility (and confirmed by some experienced people who told me about it).  They have 40% upside right now and even if they don't get tendered, they have strong yields.


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None

Author:

Perry Rod

Subject:

None

Sentiment:

Strong Buy

Date:

06/25/09 at 10:04 AM CDT

Thanks for the headsup.

My C play was purely an arbitrage, so i am not taking any chance on convertion.

Still have my arb open which uses systetic long vs short the common stock. Yield is approx 7%/ month, so not bad.


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Author:

Martin Sambu

Subject:

None

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

06/25/09 at 7:52 PM CDT

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