lt cap,

INFN is just the usual conundrm, only more so, and it makes prediction pretty impossible. I wouldn't never dreamed they'd be in the 8's. That I couldn't conceive of that is not important. That Fallon and other mgmt. couldn't have conceive of it, given their buys, is what is so troubling. 

You know, it makes sense that they'd probably rebound off those lows, given that *something* had to be overdone there. And one could play options - not to get to 'even' (that, a long, long way up for me), but mitigate the damage. And Fallon's and mgmt. 2nd 'buy'' may be their way of doing that.  And as you say, it's a long term story. But between mgmt. somehow way underguessing business, and the factors you point out - cut throat DCI prices, Transmode being less than sparkling, InPhi, customer(s) walking, new equipment on  hold while waiting for the next product, things don't look really good at the moment. And prediction seems unguessable. (When customers only want  the latest equipment, what do they do with the old stock they have in supply -  is it like supermarkets where you can retrieve it from the dumpster?)

NOK, as you said, messed the bed, but they have long term key points and prospects that look considerably brighter. And as you note, any bets are hedged by the macro falling apart. Is this the longest period of expansion in our history. (forget that the expansion is still weak in terms of GDP, it's still in the black.) It's hard to imagine that we get to 5G in 2018, much less 2020 where large scale adoption will supposedly become mainstream, without some serious correction/recession between now and then. I simply don't understand this economically.

Nor politically, but I'm certainly not alone in that. Hillary is a shoe-in, despite having huge disapproval ratings. If the Republicans had put up PeeWee Herman as their candidate, he would've beat her, regardless that he's a bit of an odd sexual creature in porn film theaters. Bill is a sexual predator who is the most popular Democrat in the country - blows my mind. (What does Bill say to Hillary after having sex? "I'll be home in about a half-hour, honey.") 

So, we'l hope for the best. CIEN's earnings in early Sept. ought to be interesting. They seem to be doing the best in this beat-down sector - so far, anyway.

On INFN, here are a couple of thoughts after the shock:

1.- While the stock was not deserving of a low to mid twenties price, when it dropped to $15, I thought the drop was too much, I was wrong obiously.  However,  I do tend to think the drop to $8 was way overdone.  I am one who thinks that the issues being confronted by INFN are indeed temporary, i.e. 12 to 15 months max.  I see the stock going back to the $13 to $15 level over that time frame.

That said, I do agree that the fact that management did not see the freight train coming right at them is troubling.  However, I too think the stock has priced in that big mistake.  I keep thinking that MKM must have talked to more of their customers and was able to get more direct answers than they were giving the Infinera sales personnel. MKM knew was was coming, management did not.

On NOK, I have a much better opinion than INFN.

The revenues from wireless sector has been very hard to predict. The slow down has been much more severe than these companies anticipated, analysts too have been clueless.  However, there is now consensus that its rate of decline peaked and it has begun to meaningfuly decelerate, it may be bottoming. If I may be bold enough to assume that the companies and analysts have begun to get a real handle on this, then I can feel a lot more confident that NOK has now more levers and maneuvering room to deal with the remaining period before 5G starts to be deployed en mass.  

The combination of NOK and ALU is, if I may repeat this for the nth time, the absolute correct thing to do to scale the company and move it solidly above Ericson to become the number 2 supplier of wireless gear and acquire the number 2 (or three?)  supplier of Routers and switches.  The transformation of this company is well on its way, and what a difference between now and 4/5 years ago.

As I stated yesterday, the Merril Lynch folks have proven to me that they have the correct Nokia pulse. I am reading the Merril Lynch post Nokia earnings report and they continue to be very bullish.  In fact they state the report was " Nokia delivered a solid/in line 2Q in a tough industry backdrop".  They highlight the fact that management now estimates;  " 1) The introduction of a 7-9% margin range vs a 7% floor established with 1Q suggests higher confidence that the worst in margin terms is behind us. 2) Management suggested margins will likely be above 8% if it executes well on extracting initial deal savings in 2H."

The report also states that the E1.5B buyback program begins in the 4th Quarter. TOn cost reductions they state: "Cost synergies should ramp up from here and become a meaningful tailwind into 2017-18 while yoy revenue declines are beginning to improve."

INFN" Additional insider's excersized options 2 days ago:

form4oracle.com/co...=11983