Earnings season shows more
declines
Global earnings peaked in August 2014. Since then they have
declined 14%. At the same time, equities have rallied 25%. This is
according to a note written by Andrew Lapthorne, head of
quantitative analysis at Société
Générale. Lapthorne forms the following and simple
conclusion: “Gravity beckons!” He also wrote:
“MSCI World EPS is now declining at the fastest pace since
2009.”
Expectations vs. Reality
Through May 9, 87% of S&P 500 companies reported earnings
and 71% beat bottom line expectations. Over the same time frame,
profits have declined 7.1% year-over-year.
This sends a mixed signal. First quarter expectations were
exceptionally low, which allowed the majority of companies to beat
on the bottom line. However, the S&P 500 has now seen three
consecutive quarters of negative earnings growth. Two consecutive
quarters of negative earnings growth makes for an earnings
recession.
Loeys On Earnings
According to a note recently written by Jan Loeys, global
strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co., similar periods of earnings
declines in the past have either led to “strong fiscal or
monetary stimulus or strong growth in productivity.” Loeys
went on to write that central banks aren’t having as much of
an impact in the past and that with falling productivity, "It is
much harder to expect higher company earnings over the next
year.”
Loeys sees one of two possibilities: dramatic policy action or
recession. To Loeys contracting margins are a key warning sign of
impending recession. While Loeys sees an elevated risk of recession
over the next one to two years, the immediate risk appears to be
low.
The answer is likely to be simple. If the U.S. can only show
0.5% GDP growth, then recession would be a probable scenario
without extremely low interest rates. The dilemma is that those low
interest rates are beginning to catch up with some corporations,
which can’t afford to repay debts.
investopedia.com/ar...on.asp
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Add to that wage pressures
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Author:
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LongTerm
CapGains
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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05/16/16 at 10:36 AM CDT
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Speaking of wage pressures, I think a lot of people who had been
making $10 and hoping for $15, will soon be wishing they had that
$10 instead of $0. Welcome to the unintended consequences.
"Wendy's is turning to self-service ordering kiosks to offset
hikes in the minimum wage. The fast-food giant announced that the
kiosks will be made available across its 6,000-plus restaurants in
the second half of 2016. It will be up to individual franchisees to
determine whether or not to utilize the labor-saving
technology."
insider.foxnews.com/20...-hikes
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Author:
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Jester
Debunker
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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05/16/16 at 12:49 PM CDT
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Jester,
Re: Self-serve kiosks at Wendy's. Only the beginning of a trend.
Or the beginning of the 'end'. The whole operation will be run by
robots, with one human 'manager' on site to read error codes and
'reset' machinery accordingly. He can afford to buy a burger at
Wendys - all the laid off staff cannot, as commercial eateries do
not accept food stamps. Or may s/he isn't needed - have all outlets
managed from 'Wendy's Central' in.....Vietnam, or the
Phillipines.
So, yes, the irony is apparent. A permanent class of
unemployable workers, and meager spending customers.
Bernie gave a speech in a city in my state the ohter week. It
was locally televised, and man, was it 'no punches pulled.' He
started spewing figures, such as the twenty richest families in
America have greater wealth than the bottom 50% of Americans
combined. Approx. 140 mln people. Bernie said listen up, because
you won't hear these kinds of wealth figures on TV. And yes, you
won't.
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Author:
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Jam
ok
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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05/16/16 at 1:22 PM CDT
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I believe the march towards more automation will conitnue
relentlessly, and is creeping up towards higher skill labor.
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Author:
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LongTerm
CapGains
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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05/16/16 at 1:46 PM CDT
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lt cap,
I agree entirely. I'm sure I've posted this before, so forgive
me: A close friend, an expert in AI, contends that it will not be
long before a computer with sufficiently high AI will be able to do
anything a human can do (including art: painting, poetry, etc.)
'Our Final Invention' by Barret makes a pretty strong case. 'Rise
of the Robots' (can't recall the author) speaks to how the owners
of the automatons (the 1% if you will) will become increasingly
more wealthy, rather than spreading the $ around, and perhaps sets
the conditions for revolution as the gap between haves and
non-haves gets dizzying. Good thing that 60 countries are
reseraching autnomous battlefield weapons - one way to cut down a
murderous mob.
And on a different topic, I know you all know
this...but.....Jester's and lt caps observations about both how
earnings reports are cautionary and how real GDP keeps falling far
short of estimates (warnings from both in the US - .5% GDP growth,
and IMF or whoever looks at World GDP cutting back estimates) are
important long-term indicators of what we're probably in for. Not
that this is any different than other times - but the market seems
to keep 'dithering' on the news of the day, if not the news of the
hour - Oil is up, the market gains 200 points - Oil price is down,
it loses it back. Attenion span of a guppy. I hope to God our play
on the optical network sector comes to fruition before the party is
over. I have read some stories that suggest a recessive market may
well open up price wars - let's hope not.
And on a different topic - I cannot believe how negligent I was
on not monetizing my strong opinion that in graphics cards, Nvidia
was eating the only competition - AMD's lunch. AMD was playing
desperate catch-up, re-branding cards with the same architecture.
And not doing well at it. I looked at NVDA in the low 20's. It is
now above 40. And on May 27th, NVDA will begin shipping its
smaller-die Pascal architecture cards. Too stupid to act on the
implication of one's own words? Well, hope there's another bus
coming in 20 minutes.
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Author:
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Jam
ok
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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05/16/16 at 8:29 PM CDT
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This narrative the media is peddling about oil and the market is
BS too. When oil was crashing, all we heard was that it was
unequivocally good for America. Then we saw the results in the oil
sector of layoffs and bankruptcies, and suddenly it wasn't so good.
US retail has been crashing too, despite the supposed benefits of
these low oil prices, with those savings mostly going to
ever-rising healthcare costs and the general inflation that the Fed
insists is non-existent, for instance it seems like almost every
restaurant near me has raised prices by 8%-10% recently, and I'm
not talking about the cheapest fast food chains. My property taxes
are up a similar amount. Yay for no inflation! Now with oil rising,
does it not follow that it's worse for America? Higher costs when
consumers and companies are obviously struggling? And yet whenever
oil is going up, they tell us that's why the market is up, and vice
versa.
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Author:
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Jester
Debunker
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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05/17/16 at 2:05 PM CDT
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The collapse of Oil Prices certainly caught most experts
by surprise (although in handsight it should have been obvious to
those in the biz), even T Boon Pickens (sp) was saying it would not
last as long as it has and then he was predicting $80 a barrel
soon. So here we are and oil is still under $50. The
number of bankruptcies in the oil patch is certainly very
high.
On the other hand, Iran is still
ramping up and Libya and Venezuela are not pumping anywhere near
what they used to. So who the heck knows when the supply/demand
will balance?
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Author:
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LongTerm
CapGains
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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05/17/16 at 2:22 PM CDT
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From as recently as March 1st, there's this story about the
supply glut with storage and tankers full of oil.
The queue of ships waiting outside Europe’s biggest
port and oil-trading hub of Rotterdam has grown to the
longest in seven years as a global supply glut fills storage
capacity.
As many as 50 oil tankers, twice as many as normal, are waiting
outside Rotterdam because storage sites are almost full, the
port’s spokesman Tie Schellekens said by phone on
Tuesday.
bloomberg.com/ne...r-high
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Author:
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Jester
Debunker
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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05/17/16 at 2:44 PM CDT
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Re Oil and Venezuela: I hear the economic situation
in Venezuela is in a death spiral, people are going without basic
necessities, even toilet paper is rationed! It has been
pretty rough going for socialist/left wing leaning governments in
Latin America, I would not be surprised if Venezuela’s
President Maduro finds himself in a tough spot. If this were
to happen, it would not help the Oil Sector. Venezuela has
the biggest reserves and Oil output has completely collapsed. If
this were to happen, a new government would likely have a more
conservative (right wing) agenda. The Exxons and Chevrons of
the world would likely benefit and bring production back in a few
years time.
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Author:
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LongTerm
CapGains
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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05/17/16 at 3:17 PM CDT
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