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Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

05/12/16 at 1:35 PM CDT

 

 

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Sentiment:

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OT - NOK

<p>OT - NOK</p> <p>Tried to find any relevant news that might tie into NOK's further 2%+ slide today - although it had regained .10 off the low of $5.11. I can find nothing explanatory, just a rehash of the data and implications of it from the CC. They did mention that of the 20 covering analysts, 7 were buy, nine were hold, and 4 were sell, with a median PT of $7.05. (Hmm..for that matter, it makes me realize that outside of MKM's 'hold', I can't recall seeing other analyst's takeaways from the CC. Perhaps I'm looking in the wrong places.) Thought today's blowdown might've been a 'sympathy' move on news from other companies - CIEN, INFN. No news there either. Except that one could say again that the market appears to simply hate the sector this year. Or perhaps parcel it out - while there were CFO and CEO buys of INFN right around the sub $12 price its sitting at now, they really need a clarifying CC next time. And CIEN needs to stop promising things that don't materialize, such as athe 'delayed' ATT order that quietly disappeared, IIRC.</p> <p>And then there's that total disconnect between data growth and sector performance. Too familiar - we hear data demand is (or is about to) exploding, but capex purse strings are tight. Makes little sense to me - I thought customers like the telecoms had pretty much squeezed the limits of what current capacity can handle. It might be tempting to buy more NOK here but.....visibility is difficult, as I see no news that really connects with price movement, and it's not showing many signs of finding a bottom.</p>

Jamok, I don't know what to say other than when the market hates a stock, it really, really hates it. Look at NOK, INFN, VRX, etc. Meanwhile, EA hitting those $76 highs faster than I expected.


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Author:

Jester Debunker

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

05/12/16 at 1:53 PM CDT

Jester,

Indeed it is so - All of them - NOK, INFN,CIEN are at or near 52 weeks lows. I suppose one could at least partly hang it on none of them have had good-news CC's lately. As per my post, it's puzzling between the data demand this is/has to come, and the capex impoverishment. My un-learned mind in this area says that, at least for the telecoms, 5g is the next big driver of capex spending. and NOK says that, while 5g won't be in broad use/new standard until 2020, they'll have their products ready by, I think it was, 2018. And CIEN has joined with INTC and CSCO to do what sounds like the same thing. So does that delay data demand in the telecom sector? I can't fathom how other data-demand driven sectors (e.g., Netflix, streaming 4k is in its infancy, etc.) are going to be feasible without better, faster equipment, but there is the disconnect beteen that and the capex drought.

Or, as you say, more succinctly - when the market hates a sector, it shows no mercy. In the back of me head, when I read that the mega-deals on equipment are much rarer, a thing of the past, does it not mean that companies are in fierce competition for puny capex spending right now? And if so, why would there not be a price-war? When we were on the INFN boat, I remember ALU stealing the deal last-minute by pretty much giving the equipment away. That, at least, would make some sense of this. But I haven't heard much in the CCs that would suggest the corrolaries of such a situation - margin shrinkage, etc. - are happening. 

So I guess I just hold on and wait for a recovery in the long run. I've looked at option prices and given the volatility in the sector, none of them look all that attractive. Or, one could think  - can't go lower from here - I'd expect that PE and other indicators say these stocks are cheap - but then, I also thought that when they were a good deal higher.

Patience, patience.

As for EA, I guess when the market likes a given sector it *really* likes it, lol. I'm mildly surprised to see more follow-thru rather than pullback and consolidation post CC for EA.

 


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Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

05/12/16 at 2:35 PM CDT

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