lt cap,

Thanks for the Barrons/Ciena post - I'm not sure I understand the differentiation between optical component and optical systems stock, and whether it's favorable on CIEN and INFN because they have no China exposure, or whther they're not favorable for them for the same distinction. 

I have more CIEN than I want already, but I am tempted here - below the 18% haircut it took after the CC. 'Gritted teeth' analysis doesn't sound so grand. And another way (valid - maybe not) is a pattern often seen as analysts try to 'smoke screen' a pick they're now backing away from - keep ratings, low pt sequentially, eventually get ratings and pt within the real world the stock is operating in.  Not saying that's what's going on, just that's the pattern I often see. It's a bit disturbing that at the last one or two quarters the CEO in the CC said revs were light because of an order from ....ATT I think (if not VZ then) had shifted into the next quarter, and the analysts gave him a pass on that one. Could be that was followed up honestly, because this quarter's numbers were ok guidance killed it. But Fallon-like conservative predictions always sit better with me. Misleading analysts is a fool's game. 

As I ponder CIEN (and INFN, if it's going to dip into the 14's again), I increased my NOK position today by about 12%. I can find no news, so that's just blind/long term story faith. Yes, they got downgraded by that idiot to 'underperform', but that was last thursday, and I'd think it would've already been digested. For the moment, I'll take the 3.25% gap down.

I agree regarding managing expectations.  Ciena's CEO Smith is clearly not up to snuff like Fallon is, as I stated before I prefer INFN, JNPR and CSCO for long term holds. Only buying CIEN here because it is so oversold and cheap and trading at a price to sales of 1, but only for a trade.

BTW, CIEN has a lot of shorts, around 13.5%, the big drop seems to me was orchestrated.  It is very oversold now, so I would think that the shorts may continue to cover as it stabilizes at these levels, which may give it a bump up of 5% to 7% in the near term

Regarding the diff between optical component and equipment makers:  CIEN and INFN are optical equipment makers, where as Oclaro, JDSU (think they changed their name) are optical component makers.