Jon,

That's really an interesting idea on INFN options for Feb. The swoon below 18 recently had me paralyzed - I've got some at $18.60 and more at $21.67 - I felt a bit top-heavy as writing options on them wouldn't bring me to even, so I internalized it as a long-term position that would eventually grow into valuation - altho lt cap changed his original dictum that he thought below $20 was value, and above over-rich (he revised that upwar IIRC with their announcement of new products and synergies with the company they bought (I forget the name), into the 17's felt uncomfortable. I think I will mull, and may well try that play, buying more shares and optioning them out, given that at today's price, you're covered down to a little below $17, and yes, it's not impossible but hard to imagine there's a lot more downside there. But if I do it, I'll do it next week - do not want further taxable revs, given the premiums are paid immediately. For that matter, I'm still in the dark about when my sold (selling? in the 'process' of selling? somewhere in 'stock purgatory'?) ALU shares will be a taxable event. I'd think that trading in EU markets is over or close to it, but that doesn't guarantee against telling us after the fact when the ALU shares get sold. 

Also, one might be aware that in late Jan (rough prediction is the 28th), INFN will have their earnings call. And holding thru that makes me slightly nervous - not that there is a parallel, but I really thought CIEN was going to report good news in their CC, and basically they messed the bed, at least short-term. Still imagining INFN below $17 - can pigs fly? I dunno. I'll take it up Monday.

There is some risk with earnings, but I see any bad news as a blip and would probably buy more (depending exactly on the news). I don't see longer term issues (1 year or more out). I could be wrong. I already broke the Jester rule and traded options 6-7 weeks out. I felt like a potential 11% gain and what I view as well protected on the downside made it worth the risk to me. And admittedly, I had the cash and nothing else remotely interesting to do with it.

Or INFN could fall into mid 17s today. Lol. What do I know.

The market is now in show me the money mode.  Frankly, it has been in this mode for the past 9 or so months.  No patience nor tolerance, bad news is bad news and good news is not good enough.

I think the sentiment may become more tolerant if/when it discounts 15% to 18% of the S&P high of 2132.  I would love to get back into AAPL if it drops down to the high 80s.

ANT (Amazon, Netflix, Tesla) getting crushed. I think the combo of bad news plus tax selling those 2015 winners that are at ridiculous valuations gets us where we are today. OTOH, a beaten up stock like GME recovered to green earlier despite an analyst downgrade and the near 3% market drop. It'll be interesting to see if the previous market leaders can continue in that capacity, of if those long trades are so crowded they fuel the next move down. Probably the latter.

I tend to agree.  The hyper-valuations may be meeting with the reality that a profit recession and an up Fed Rate cycle of yet undeterminate length will be a net negative for all stocks.

Re Apple:

I am looking at the AAPL 2 year chart and the stock has formed and completed a Head & Shoulders pattern, giving good odds it falls down to the 90s and maybe even the very high 80s.

Jester,

I highly value your opinion, can you tell me what you see in AAPL from a technical point of view?

LT, I would agree with you re AAPL. The $104 and $100 (just because it's a round number) levels look important, then around $95, though with negative news increasing from China and the market in general struggling, it seems unlikely that AAPL will become new leadership. Still, anything is possible. In recent years we've seen that when money leaves some stocks it goes to other stocks, so if high flyers like ANT struggle, that money may go to cheaper plays. Of course, it may well be different this time.

Thanks for your input. I am leaning towards another quick down turn, much like we got in late August and again in late September of last year.  I believe this coming earnings season will be poor to mediocre, which may keep the market under pressure. 

This market is now a stock pickers market.  I agree that there will be rotation, but in general I think that market internals will continue to be very poor, causing a lot of volatility and little progress in the major indexes.

OT - INFN

Jon,

I dunno - I think your break-even point on INFN (IIRC ~$17) seems like a cheap price for the company. I did not do anything, as I didn't want a premium to accrue to 2015 income. But as of today......$17.47 as we speak. Which, if one is willing to buy shares and then sell Feb. $18 covered calls, will get you down to around $16 or so break even. Or $15.50 if you're willing to sell the calls @$17. That  seems like a damn sweet deal (the company they bought that I couldn't remember was Transmode, which Fallon was pretty much pumping as a very good synergistic fit, and he's not prone to talk trash). Except that feeling that we all know ..... in a real market downturn, cheap becomes rich and one wonders WTH was I thinking, lol. But I've gotta give this serious consideration. INFN a $15 stock?

I've heard it said a "stock pickers market" is a bear market, which really means that's a worse time to be taking risk on specific companies compared to a bull market. Taking long based gains quickly may be the best option.

I agree.  While I am very heavily invested in ALU (soon to be NOK), I can afford and am prepared to stay the course on the investment, i.e. 2 to 3 years and longer if the company demonstrates continued progress beyond that time frame.

However, on my work 401K I am not willing to do the same, hence the reason I have moved 80% of that money into the guaranteed fund.

The caveat to my negative market sentiment explained in my previous post is the consumer spending in a big way.  While I am of the opinion that spending will continue to increase, it will be in a moderate fashion, we are not going back to spend free attitudes of the first decade of this millennium.

BTW, I am also of the opinion that the Auto Industry is due to go back to the trend line, i.e. 16M autos per year, not the 18M+ of last year.  After several years of very good sales, I think the pent up demand from the crisis will start to recede.  If my take is correct, I think this too will weigh on the market.

OT - INFN

Jon,

I dunno - I think your break-even point on INFN (IIRC ~$17) seems like a cheap price for the company. I did not do anything, as I didn't want a premium to accrue to 2015 income. But as of today......$17.47 as we speak. Which, if one is willing to buy shares and then sell Feb. $18 covered calls, will get you down to around $16 or so break even. Or $15.50 if you're willing to sell the calls @$17. That  seems like a damn sweet deal (the company they bought that I couldn't remember was Transmode, which Fallon was pretty much pumping as a very good synergistic fit, and he's not prone to talk trash). Except that feeling that we all know ..... in a real market downturn, cheap becomes rich and one wonders WTH was I thinking, lol. But I've gotta give this serious consideration. INFN a $15 stock?