Not sure why my post was not all included, so here it goes...

I am no expert on this technical stuff, I only dabble in it, so I have some thoughts and question on the Gap up this Thursday when NOK and ALU delivered their quarterly earnings.

1.- This Gap up fills the Gap down that occurred this past April 30th in the wake of the ALU acquisition announcement.  

2.- So my question is:  if my take is correct and barring a market slide:  Are the chances of this Gap up NOT to be filled greatly diminished because of point 1?  Any thought would be appreciated.

3.- If point 1 is somewhat accurate, this sets solid support at these levels.  I believe NOK can rise to $9+ in 2016, it all depends on Nokia's management executing well of course. My long term price target continues to be $14 within three and a half years. It is somewhat conservative, but we all know the markets have a tendency to get in the way of individual stocks even if their fundamentals are strong.

4.- NOK will also be affected by the China slow down eventually, probably by first or second quarter 2016, however, a successful integration of ALU should eventually provide it with enhanced gross margins and scale to procure more contracts.  G4/LTE deployment-maintenance et al is not going to end suddenly, it continues throughout the world. The IP division from ALU should also offset any weakness in the wireless sector. I continue to believe that the NOK-ALU merger has greatly enhance the investment thesis that I had when I initially bought ALU (pre-merger announcement).  It should become a very strong and very competitive player with tons of opportunities, at current prices it is greatly undervalued.

5.- G5 is still several years away, however, the cycle should be a bounty for NOK, ERIC and Huawei.  It should start gathering steam around late 2017.

6.- The announcement this Thursday by NOK on its intent to pay a ~2% yearly dividend, pay down debt to the tune of $3B, establish a 2 year $1.5B share repurchase program and pay a onetime special $0.10 dividend in 2016 sends a strong message of financial confidence to the market. It should attract very strong hands into the stock which should begin to alleviate the volatility and enhance the chances of share appreciation in the long term.

LT, the NOK gap down of late April was filled by early June. And that was a proper fill too, not a gap-up fill, which I'm only guessing that the latter would presumably have less substance. So I don't believe the April gap down has any bearing currently, however the current price of around $7.48 is resistance, since that was the June high and the top of the April gap. A backfill to $7 would not surprise me, since that's likely strong support now, and if it breaks through $7.48 that will likely become support too, and the short covering boost from that action could take it to $8 easily.

Thanks also for your continued posts on ALU etc. I'm holding a few K shares there that are up 25% or so.

Thanks so much for the feedback, you are correct, and it is appreciated.  I too agree that if tested, the very high 6s or low 7s should be very strong support.  Might be a good place to buy shares for a trade.  Could you please post that publicly, I think it would be appreciated by Jamok and Jon.

LOL, Never mind, I did not realize it was a public post.  Since I missed buying more ALU in the low 3s .  I am thinking of trading around the position, I think if NOK tests he low 7s, I might buy ALU then for a trade.

lt cap,

You're quite correct. I am always appreciative of how generous board members are in sharing theses/observations/data on stocks of interest. You and Jester often cover areas that were not on my radar, and as I said to a friend the other day about the board, I'm grateful to have access to people who in a number of areas are a lot smarter and a lot well versed than I am on a given subject. 

My only regret is that more old friends didn't follow us here, or at least aren't posting. It seems to me this started so long ago (the first instance I remember is on the yahoo ERTS board in 1999 when there were exactly 3 posters - Nisthil, me, and some other guy. When we met other good folks, and eventually migrated to Stockarena to avoid the constant, useless 'food fights' that people inevitably engaged in on Yahoo, it feels to me like we created a real community of 'friends', cyberly speaking, and part of the unsaid 'rules' of that community were that cooperation, sharing, and polite disagreement  - all part of the protocol. (Well, with the exception of me and Rodd, lol, but we dropped that diagreement long ago.) Some of those 'friendships' now are older than 10 years. I've learned a hell of a lot more here than in any other place about investing, and those that have taught me have been unfailingly kind and patient. I remember one PM years ago from Nsthil, begging me to get out of THQI despite the sunny picture that analysts were painting about its future. There was no particular reason why he should extend me that concern and kindness, except the 'bonds' formed by this community. He 'had my back' and saved me from a good deal of regret.

I don't want to wax too nostalgic about this, but the simple truth is I'm among some very wise folks.  Sometimes, life deals you a 'good hand' to play. Don't waste it.

I fully agree with what you have stated.  Jester, Nsthil, Jon and yourself have always been quite valuable.  You are also on the money so to speak about us being cyber friends, I truly appreciate being in your circle.  It is too bad that Nsthil is not posting.

So a thanks goes out to all of you