lt cap,

Without looking my guess is that INTC gets the benefit of the doubt: The analysts I've heard previously pay attention to the guidance beat, rather than the y/o/y 'beating' it may deserve. There is no sign I can see that their mobile/tablet/phone initiatives are paying off. It's an old stat, but the last one I saw was a $1bln dollar investment in going into those segments, and a $1mln revenues, at that point, which needs a lot of faith to believe it's going to pay off. That said, I still believe if any company can pull it off, it's INTC. Having and R and D budget larger than some third world countries is a permanent plus, even in the face of the terrific challenges you correctly cite. I think the stock will likely be ok - for now. If they don't start performing better, eventually it must eat thru analyst's denial. I hope it doesn't come to that. 

Their left-for-dead partner MSFT looks like it has finally done something right - their TV ads are actually well constructed, and appear as future trailblazers rather than me-too catchups with Apple. Whether Win10 is a winner in actuality, that's the issue. I wouldn't know - I will hang onto Win7 for as long as humanly possible. Unfortunately, I think a lot of other folks will go that route also. A factor of which is not the least of it - if you sign on for win 10's come-on (upgrade for free), you're then a slave to whatever subscription costs MSFT extracts for yearly updates. And MSFT is so heavy-handed about making software changes without users having a choice. I wouldn't trust them.

Funny - just look at the AH INTC news - earlier headlines focus on 6.3% revenue loss. Later headlines tout datacenter revs making up for weaker pc sales. Take your pick.

IoT looks like a potential area, but it will be so heavily contested.  I also think ARM (via QCOM, AMCC and others which use ARM cores) will be the clear favorite given its low power and low cost.  Most of the devices which are likely to be connected do not require the high end processors INTC makes.

Even if INTC were to suddenly make hefty inroads in the IoT segment, it will not enjoy the gross margins it needs to move the needle.  I hear what you are saying but IMO INTC will be profit challenged for some time to come.  It does have a lot of levers it can pull, specially in FAVS (where INTC spends billions per year), it can cut capital investment to continue to protect profits, so the dividend is probably very safe.  That said, I just do not see how it can reverse the set of challenges in a short period of time.  I am sure it will eventually but it will take at least a couple of more years, maybe longer.