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Basic materials
<p>The abstract idea that there are economic 'slowdowns'
that will hurt investment is coming home to roost. CAT, already
beaten down from a high of about $105 or so, seriously slashed rev.
forecasts again, and will lay off 10,000 workers. Stock down 6+% to
about $65 (I'm a minor bagholder, but still a bagholder :-(
As I've said the basic underpinning of economic growth is
sending a very different signal than the overall market has been
conveying all during the recovery. The late-market action is
shrugging off this news, and is well off the lows. But this kind of
thing can only be ignored so long. Gold is bouncing up about 8%
today. I was right about a 'recovery bounce', but didn't have the
conviction to buy. I still think under $1k/oz., it'd be worth a
flyer.</p>
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I suppose CAT has a sizeable exposure to China, it
certainly has exposure to Europe, the rest of Asia and Latin
America, all regions in the process of slowing down.
Generally speaking, multinationals will continue to be under
pressure until there is a hint of a bottom globally and/or stock
prices attract buyers. Given the steep declines
some of them have endured this year, they may become attractive if
the market declines an additional 7 to 8%. Then again, if the
market goes deep into bear market territory, who knows?
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Author:
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LongTerm
CapGains
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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09/24/15 at 3:02 PM CDT
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One interesting and very telling detail on the CAT warning is
that the company has never experienced 4 consecutive years of
declining revenues, this includes all recessions in modern times
and the depression of the 1930s.
That of course begs the question: Did China become such a
high % of its revenues? Or is it a combination of all its
regions falling off a cliff so to speak?
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Author:
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LongTerm
CapGains
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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09/24/15 at 3:24 PM CDT
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Reading a bit on CAT, it stated:
""a convergence of challenging marketplace
conditions in key regions and industry sectors — namely in
mining and energy.""
Which tells me that the slowdown
in China is probably the biggest factor in the mining sector, and
Energy is all of OPEC, Russia and US
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Author:
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LongTerm
CapGains
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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09/24/15 at 4:32 PM CDT
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There is still quite a bit of "buy the dip" mentality, which I
believe is transitioning into "sell the rally". Just look at the
S&P or Nasdaq last 6 months. We had higher highs earlier this
summer, albeit marginally so, and in the last couple of months
we've been seeing lower highs plus that rapid drop a month ago,
which even 4 weeks later the market only had enough conviction to
retrace 50% of (on the S&P). We're also seeing several death
crosses. This all adds to wariness, transitioning more people from
dip buyers to rally sellers.
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Author:
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Jester
Debunker
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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09/24/15 at 6:01 PM CDT
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