lt cap,

I agree with your assessment, given my best take (well, let's call it plain - a guess) on where things are and are headed. Strong dollar is a problem, and will be a bigger problem going forward, it looks like, given that Europe is still at the start of a QE plan, and China, along with emerging markets that mainly depend on commodity prices for their subsistence, look to keep slowing. The strong dollar should continue to worry earnings, I'd think. 

And while one can find data to support any position, the 'Jester effect' seems to be in full swing, some of it in key areas: i.e., Forcasts are either not meeting expectations, or are being revised downward from more sunny projections. China's growth, which was expected to slow to 7.2% has just been revised to the high 6's. As I've said before, key industries that reflect basic sources of growth - e.g., mining, commodities - continue to take a thrasing. And it's not just oil - I looked at FCX and copper certainly isn't in demand as the 52 week range is ~$33 down to ~$9 or so. Home building, which I think we've agreed has to turn robust to support a real recovery, isn't fairing well, as names like KBH continue to stagnate, at best. You pegged computers - A month or so ago I read an article with predictions that the 2 year decline in pc demand should end and show slight positive results. Today, another indicator of pc growth was revised downward from ~3.3% to 7,.x%. Not a pretty picture. Phone growth worldwide was projected to be pretty anemic as well. (You called the pc slowdown quite well some time ago, and it has stayed my hand from wading into INTC again at this price - at $25, I'm a lot more interested. On the very downside, their die shrink is taking a lot longer, giving up a crucial lead advantage to competitors. On the upside, they announced that  a joint venture with Micron has yielded a replacement for....was it RAM or solid state drives?....that produced a product a zillion times faster than current speeds. (It would be a competitor to NRAM, which you and I spoke about previously - I havn't follow NRAM as I would like to have. Intel's R and D to the rescue again - that being their strongest suit is what keeps me interested in them, along with a nice dividend.)

But...we are the prettiest horse at the glue factory. (Well, US factory data slowed to the lowest in 2 years today.) It'll be interesting to see what data rules - I think at the moment there's enough foreign $ willing to support this market in light of the 'prettiest horse' theory. But...I'm curious about what happened to the fact that we destroyed the middle class as a result of Fed policy? Did we assume that consumption would just move overseas, and we didn't need such domestic consumption? If China slows, and we can't dump products in their market, what then? Instead of iphones for Chinese, do we switch to making stilts for pygmies in southwest Africa? (Or maybe Nike's with a 'heel lift' feature?) 

So, I've probably not shed a lot of light on what I think happens next. Your thesis that we get a nasty correction and resume from their is supportable I think.

On a side note, I'd think that every time Nokia removes another barrier to merger, the stock will jump accordingly. I wish it weren't so. Low 3's not that long ago was a real buying opp.

Thanks for you thoughts.  Agree.

The markets have a downward bias, the technicals have been flashing a slow down in economic activity on a global basis all year long, hence the trouble this market has had, essentially going nowhere in the first half of this year and a tumble in the third calendar quarter.

As to NOK and ALU getting a small bump with every Press Release relating to the progress on approvals, agree as well.  As I have stated, there are going to be virtaully all kinds of positive catalysts, the only caveat being the state of the markets, as no stock is an island.

LOL at analysts continuing their game of, "inflate projections for insider access". It says something about this increasingly morally bankrupt world that this behavior is now openly recognized by all, and also perfectly acceptable.

I agree the markets appear to have a downward bias now. The breadth has continued to narrow, and the recent plunge probably broke the up-trend. That more than anything will dictate price movements after news, and there is plenty of that to justify lower prices. Once prices drop, it may be a while before we see huge buying, since everyone realizes stocks aren't cheap.

The downside to this increased volatility is I hate waking up in the morning to check, "Did the market jump or tank 1% in thin futures trading today?" For example, QQQ this week:

Monday +0.55%

Tuesday -1.53%

Wednesday +0.28%

Thursday -1%

After this mornings gap, that's a -2.1% move from Friday, with opening gaps totaling 3.36%. Perhaps we should start doing the opposite of what worked in the uptrend, buy at the close and sell at the open, then forget about it for the day.

For me, key this season will be if investors react negative to companies meeting estimates and given OK guidance, that to me will be the signal that markets are intent on furthering the declines into potentially bear market levels.  Right or wrong, I am inclined to think this is what will hapen.

With this mornings gap up on nothing, that's going to be a total of less than 1% down on QQQ for the week, with about 4.5% total moves (counting magnitude) in overnight futures. Ugh. It feels like a few small players are pushing the entire market around like it's their plaything. Or the two guys in Trading Places, debating which way to jump the market >1% by the morning.

The market is probably only marking time until earnings, which if there is going to be any fire works it is probably then.