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TTWO's earnings
report
Nobody mentioned Take Two's earnings report? I have a long term
position.
I was surprised at how weak the beat was, since they usually
blow out their guidance. It signals to me that Zelnick is no longer
lowballing and analysts are overestimating their numbers for the
year. But it is pretty impressive that it looks like they'll be
profitable for at least five quarters in a row now.
What's not impressive is comparing Take Two's performance to
Activision and Electronic Arts since the buyout offer in 2008. EA
is up about 50% and ATVI is up about 100% while TTWO is up about
20%. Things are more comparable post buyout offer, but it goes to
show you how wrong analysts were about Zelnick wanting to sell the
company. He's in there to milk it for everything he can get. From
his perspective and his and Slatoff's 10 million plus a year take
from the company, why would he ever sell?
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I did not mention it because there was not much to mention. I
bought in at 24 before last earnings and sold at 28, but feel it is
more reasonably priced and possibly expensive ~30 right now.
Estimates for this year are now down to ~$1. Next year's are $1.70
but based mostly on vaporware. I have started to see "reports" of
GTA6 in 2017 but have no idea where those are coming from. GTA5 has
sold 54 million now so *if* GTA6 was coming, I would buy in big
right now, but I expect Red Dead reboot first, probably in FY2017
then GTA sometime after.
Check out estimate revisions on Yahoo. So most recently beat on
rev's but missed on earnings. For Sep Q: 90 days ago estimates for
profit of 24 cents, then 60 days ago loss of 24 cents, now up to
loss of 15 cents. Dec quarter has dropped over that time. In
general estimates all over the place which indicates there is still
little communication or perhaps little knowledge among insiders of
what earnigns will be. It has always been hard telling.
I agree that they have done a good job of being profitable on a
regular basis, and I think the stock reflects that. Unless I think
Red Dead or GTA is closer, or the price drops, I am watching
only.
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Author:
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breinejm
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Subject:
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Earnings
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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08/12/15 at 9:40 AM CDT
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The Analyst September Q estimates were off because analysts had
NBA in the December Q and had not updated for the late September
release. I agree with you on everything else.
By the way, they got a lot of analyst price target increases,
which is baffling to me since I viewed the report negatively...
marketbeat.com/st.../TTWO/
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Author:
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Perry
Rod
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Subject:
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Earnings
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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08/12/15 at 10:14 AM CDT
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