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Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

08/10/15 at 2:14 PM CDT

 

 

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Sentiment:

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OT - CIEN option

OT - CIEN - I was looking at option plays. CIEN is current $23.50, and the Sept. 11th covered calls stk. 23.50 have a $1.35, or a bit more than 5% premium for 33 days of exposure. Not an astounding play, but not bad. CIEN has moved downward since the CC, altho that CC was quite good and resulted in positive analyst commentary and reaction. As per standard with the sector, it tends to be volatile. But I'm mulling it - in the long run, it's a good company in a sector with secular growth inevitable. I do own a bit of non-trading shares otherwise.

Jamok,

Knowing nothing about CIEN myself, and just glancing at the chart, the $23 level is important. That was the high in June last year, and when it broke over there in May this year it then dropped back to test that level a month ago. The 100ma is also at $23, and this was support in April. You might be better off waiting for a bounce before selling calls. Also, they don't need to be 35 days out. It has weekly options. Personally, I favor selling 1-3 weeks out, so you can catch a decent amount of theta premium decay. Or if it does go below $23 soon and doesn't immediately bounce back over it, sell $23 calls when it bounces back to that line.


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Author:

Jester Debunker

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

08/10/15 at 2:34 PM CDT

Thanks for the head's up. I bought 1k and sold the 24's for 1.03. I have a lot of cash currently so figured it was a good play vs just sitting around.


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Author:

breinejm

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

08/11/15 at 9:12 AM CDT

OT - Jon, per the PM I sent you: I bought 1k CIEN @ 22.85, and will decide how much and when to option them out. I may take the long run - i.e. Sept. 11 stk 23.50, as the return is a pretty good deal, %wise. A smart bird pointed me towards looking 1-3 weeks out, as the odds become better, which may be a better strategy in terms of risk/reward/time exposure. The fact that I like the sector, and CIEN seems poised to be among the 'winners' encourages me. The fact that they've been in a sharp ST downward trend is not so grand. But I'm treating it a bit like ALU - long term patience, as I have and want a non-trading position as well.

Speaking of which, I am somewhat sore tempted to add to ALU here around $3.55, although I keep remembering that dip into the 3.30's and 3.40's and wonder if that might not be repeated. Regardless, I would like to increase my stake opportunistically. I do wonder whether the market is using the 'crisis of the day' (Greece, then yuan, probably Ukraine up next - or maybe Iran deal falls apart) as an excuse to go lower, which might be where it 'wants' to head. Perhaps it is not of note, but a month or so ago S'Yellen made a comment about the market 'being fully valued'. I haven't heard a comment like that from the Fed chair since the late 1990's (I think), when Greenspan cautioned against 'irrational exuberance'. just a bit before the market crashed. Given that the Fed chair's every words are scrutinized under a microscope, I wonder why she would say such a thing? OTOH, she's clearly said she's ready to do what's necessary to keep this market afloat. 

Speaking of Greenspan - I know a lot of folks don't like him, and blame him for his non-regulatory stance that led to the 2008 chicanery. I saw some video clips of an interview with him yesterday on Bloomberg - probably still viewable on their website. He took possession of some of his misjudgments. He also commented on what he sees as some serious dangers in the market, starting with a bond bubble, and that such troubles are inevitable and unavoidable. Regardless of his actions as Fed chair, I've always thought he was a very smart guy and worth listening to.


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Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

08/11/15 at 2:37 PM CDT

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