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Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

11/18/20 at 6:14 AM CST

 

 

READ: 4

RPLY: 2

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Sentiment:

Neutral

Reply to:

MSG`#5146,`11/16/20
By breinejm

 

Re: OT: Chinese EVs

When I started investing in EVs, I did it because I had missed TSLA.  I first bought XPEV when it went public back in August. Days later I started buying NIO shares.

My investment thesis for the EV market is as follows:

China has the biggest car market on the planet – 24M car sales every year – EV sales will be 25% of that market in the mid-term, I think by 2025 (from memory)

China is heavily subsidizing the EV market

China wants to become carbon neutral by 2060

EVs are all the rage worldwide

Battery technology is now beginning to advance, and the economies of scale will continue to push manufacturing costs down.  It is believed that within five years the price of battery packs will be on par with gas combustion engine and its related parts.  Time will tell.  However, if this is true, I figure governments around the globe will move to ban manufacturing of combustion cars.  This assumption does not mean gas combustion engine cars already in use will be banned, they will age and break down within a couple of decades.

The valuations are indeed pricing in 10 years of growth.  It is crazy, but having seen the trajectory of TSLA, I decided and figured that the market would treat Chinese EVs in a similar fashion.  My timing was lucky, no question.

I decided to sell my entire positions in NIO and XPEV as the charts have gone vertical.  I made something like 90%+ since August.  I do plan to buy them back, assuming they drop to levels in the $28 to $30 level.

One thing I love about EV investing is deliveries are announced every month, this allows you to see if the EV stock you have picked is actually producing a product people like and are purchasing

 

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