When I started investing in EVs, I did it because I had missed
TSLA. I first bought XPEV when it went public back in August.
Days later I started buying NIO shares.
My investment thesis for the EV market is as
follows:
China has the biggest car market on the planet – 24M car
sales every year – EV sales will be 25% of that market in the
mid-term, I think by 2025 (from memory)
China is heavily subsidizing the EV market
China wants to become carbon neutral by 2060
EVs are all the rage worldwide
Battery technology is now beginning to advance, and the
economies of scale will continue to push manufacturing costs
down. It is believed that within five years the
price of battery packs will be on par with gas combustion engine
and its related parts. Time will
tell. However, if this is true, I figure
governments around the globe will move to ban manufacturing of
combustion cars. This assumption does not mean
gas combustion engine cars already in use will be banned, they will
age and break down within a couple of decades.
The valuations are indeed pricing in 10 years of
growth. It is crazy, but having seen the
trajectory of TSLA, I decided and figured that the market would
treat Chinese EVs in a similar fashion. My
timing was lucky, no question.
I decided to sell my entire positions in NIO and XPEV as the
charts have gone vertical. I made something like
90%+ since August. I do plan to buy them back,
assuming they drop to levels in the $28 to $30 level.
One thing I love about EV investing is deliveries are announced
every month, this allows you to see if the EV stock you have picked
is actually producing a product people like and are purchasing