Good posts by all.  My take on the markets right now is that we may still have a chance to buy at lower prices, I am not sure if the lows get tested, but feel that the rally in the markets makes stocks far more expensive than they were when all this began.  There is support at the 50DMA which is at about 2758, not too far from todays pre-market level, the question of course is if it will hold, I lean on not holding. 

I believe that we are a ways until we have truly effective and widespread testing (which detects even the asymptomatic), an effective treatment (remdesivir is a small step in the right direction, but not a silver bullet), and of course an effective vaccine that is produced at a global scale, in short this stool is missing all three legs. That said, I believe Science will conquer this virus, but ot takes time.

When I look at the John Hopkins COVID-19 map and see where the US is as it relates to bending the curve, I see a graph that is not vertical, but it is not yet curving, so we are some weeks before a true curve can be achieved.  Then there is the platau, which is also weeks long, maybe months.  China is seeing a second wave in some parts of the country.  The Southern hemisphere is also beginning to look troublesome as their Fall season has begun, specially Brazil, Chile, Peru, Ecuador etc...  That tells me this thing is surely coming back by mid fall. I hope I am wrong, but that is how I see this playing out.

Because of all of that believe the re-opneing of the economy will be fraught with risk, and there is a chance we get some states in trouble again, which in turn will scare people back into their homes again.  The Fed and Government will have to continue throwing helicopter money to put a net underneath this battered economy.

Then there is Trump and his campaign, he is going back to a tariff war, which I believe is the worst course of action at the precise worst moment  for depressed economies around the world.  This will work agaisnt the very idea of re-opening economies.  A trade war in the middle of a depression is crazy.  I think that the move out of China had begun anyway, it was proceeding well, and I do not think there is anything that would have stopped it, so pushing on a trade war may add to the China exodus, but at the cost of pushing  economies further into the hole.

So while I am not sure we see the lows again, I see plenty of trouble for the real economy for the next 18 months.