For shorts, that's a tough one. I used to be very confident in a test of the March lows, but I'm far less so now. The market leaders have shown they are relatively fine and will be OK, and they make up such a large % of the indices I doubt they'll sell off 25% from here, which is what it would take to return to the lows. Back then it was all fear of the unknown. Now, we know the death rate is a fraction of what we feared. There are treatments coming to improve it. Every day is closer to a vaccine. Plus we know there's a massive amount of asymptomatic people, which probably gets us closer to herd immunity. Sweden may be leading the way there.

Finally, the country is starting to open up. A bit prematurely I think. The correct approach is when at that plateau after the peak which last a few weeks, keep it going another few weeks to really strangle the virus spread. Instead, at Trump's insistence because he wants to have rallies and not lose the election, we're opening up. I doubt that once any State goes to Phase One it ever returns to lockdown, barring a vicious mutation.

The sectors you'd expect to struggle have already taken such a huge hit. Airlines down over 55%. They'll be interesting to watch this week after Buffett's comments Friday. In typical talking his book fashion, he said in March he wouldn't be selling any airlines stocks, then on Friday he said he sold all his airline shares in April. Berkshire is holding onto its cash for now. I wonder if there are shorting opportunities in restaurants? CMG is usually at an absurd multiple, and currently not far from its ATH, but OTOH their recent earnings report was decent. Perhaps fast casual can be OK with strong pickup and delivery even with reduced restaurant capacity for a while. The chains that are more for the sit-down experience though, they rely on high occupancy and high margin drinks sales. Perhaps if something like CAKE rallies again, which last week jumped to $24 then sold off back to $20.

DIS is more of a buy on the dips for long term imo. AMC is one to watch here. Universal did well with the digital release of Trolls World Tour, to which AMC responded by banning all Universal movies. That's just posturing I think. Universal probably has no big releases in the next while anyway so they'll come to a deal. What will Disney do though? I can't see them sitting out on $20 digital rentals for new releases, and I doubt AMC can afford to ban Disney, they're struggling already. It's not looking good for them with the virus and probably studios holding onto films for longer because what's the point of releasing them to 25% occupancy, plus a gap in content due to no filming, and now this digital threat. Shades of GameStop circa 2013?

The big oil companies have rallied more than I'd expect to see, given how cheap oil is and the hopes for economic recovery being too optimistic. I think many will be looking at them as a buy on weakness story too. The market in general has gotten ahead of itself I think. Maybe it'll be more range bound for a while?