Good post, well thought out. I tend to agree with you.  I think management knows the company and more importantly the segment they operate in better than analysts.  I seriously doubt Fallon would have spent over one million of his own money in the company unless he had a good idea that the problems were only a bump i the road. Now, that is not to say that the very short term could be like Genovese describes, but I doubt he has visibility all the way to the end of 2017 while INFN's management is clueless or in denial.

I personally think the softness is a few quarters long, not 18 months long.  IRRC, Genovese in his research note mentioned that the customer that halted purchases of the Transmode would come back late in the year, so if most everything is going well, and the lack of visibility is for Transmode, then I frankly doubt the sales remain flat for that long.

From a contrarian point of view and given the better than 50% hair cut from 52 week high, I like the fact that analysts are downgrading the stock, it can't be far from a bottom.