lt cap,

As you cite in a later post, INFN has always been an unpredictable loon of a stock, sometimes moving very substantially for no apparent reason.

This time, however, you've delineated the reasons. starting with Genovese's detailed trashing of the stock. (His detail and reasoning is compelling, if one buys his basic premises. Part of the 'problem' for INFN with his analysis is that he seems to know a lot more about their business than mgmt. does, even if that's somewhat of an illusion.)

In G's analysis, and others, it seems that everything that was a positive, is now a negative: INFN was on course to continue to grow substantially, esp. given that it still has the best hardware/software solutions in their main market, and the old question of 'will they be around in 10 years' is moot. Transmode, which Fallon rather pounded the table on, and which I think (IIRC) he said would be accretive to income pretty fast, is now seen as a drag - a difficult competitive environment for its niche. 

I could cite more 'flip side' issues, but you and others already know the whole story.

I agree with you that the substantial market price buys of stock by Fallon and Welch were likely bought with a shorter time frame than years for those buys to bear fruit.

I think it comes down to this, altho perhaps over-simplified: Who knows their business better, mgmt. or Genovese and other negative/skeptical analysts. One would think it must be the former - if CEO, CFO, CTO don't, then who does? And that's the rub, kind of..........Genovese seems to be providing all the detailed 'color' that was missing from INFN's last CC. Is is possible that mgmt. is in some kind of denial/delusional state? Or was their fumbling lack of adequate answers to questions about projections going forward because Genovese is right, but they didn't want to come out straight and deal with their plan to make the future brighter?

I tend to think mgmt. knows its business better than others, even though Genovese's analysis is detailed and appears definitive. Fallon has been a straight shooter. So I think one should tend to believe his nothing-but-bullish statements on the Transmode acquisition and its impact on revs. (Of course, the obverse of this would be 'to believe his nothing but bulls*it statements', lol.)  I tend to believe Fallon is still a straight shooter - but one thing he needs to do is polish his CC management skills when times get rather rough.

In disclosure, I may tend to believe Fallon because I have a semi-boatload of this stock, to the point where the weight of it may sink the ship :-) And as you point out, it seem terrifically over-sold. But that kept being true on this horriic slide down, and might be true now. If one writes covered calls on July 22 stk $11, you're covered down to about $10.85 (working from memory here.) That would be pre-CC, so it's a bit safer than going out longer to encompss the likely CC date. But it feels abit too risky - if anyone had called for an $11 price when it was riding high, it would have seemed more than ludicrous. $9 seems similar but.....possible. So the premium on calls is a fairly small fig leaf.

If I were Jester, I might hedge this, saddle spread that, and do the calculus to put the odds in my favor on a buy. But I'm not him, so I'll probably continue to watch is, half-tempted to buy on over-sold theory, half spooked that it might/can go lower. The price action, at least, looks like a train wreck so far. I will likely sit with the shares I've got, and figure it's another patience-of-Job stock position.

I just realized that INFN broke below its 52 wk. low of $1150. Not good.