lt cap,

Thanks for the INFN analysis. 

I have my own personal 'gut feelings' on INFN, and thus they aren't backed up especially with data. But....I think the Transmode 'hiccup' (and I think you called that right) was quite out of whack with the synergies, and augmentation of areas/products INFN can offer, which Fallon confidently expressed when INFN announced acquiring them. Feels to me like INFN has been accorded 'show me' status - and the fact that their growth rate is a really good story has been eclipsed by not only the info in the CC, but how non-transparent and fumbling around mgmt seemed.  I can imagine an analyst thinking they're hiding something, let's wait and see if'/what that is before we endorse (or continue to do so) them.

But the whole sector really feels 'squishy', as though the secular growth thesis no longer exists. A 15% price drop after the CC is pretty astounding, given that they were alreadywell off the 52 wk high ~$24. CIEN's beaten up, CSCO has fallen about 3 points (I still wished I had grabbed some when it was 23 for the 4%+ dividend), and JNPR is off today by 2.11% - a larger percentage drop from its peers. (Delayed CC reaction? Who knows.) Regardless, the sector as a whole seems to have behaved miserably, for the most part.

And the dilemma with INFN which we're facing is that (at least my) buy in price is even above the bullish analyst's PT's (mine is $19.XX/avg. sh.), do we dump INFN and wait for them to fulfill their promises, or do we bag-hold it, waiting for them to fulfill their promises? It's funny, but a buy-out here would probably still leave me in the red, unless someone wants to pay somewhere above 50% of its current trading price.

Personally, at the moment I'm inclined to hold it, as it seemed to have found a home around $11.75 - give or take - and I think it's possible it may just be range bound until there is some instigating event to move it.

One thing I wanted to ask you if you know: Initially, the thesis on INFN was that they had the best product, and could not be matched in performance with its competitors. Does that disparity still exist, or have they caught up to INFN, or at least closed some of the gap, since those days? TIA.