I now have had time to get over the shock and beating from
the INFN quarterly miss.
Fundamentally the company's main products are sound.
They continue to grab market share. The problem is with
one customer which from the noise made by MKM has simply turned off
the spigot and judgning from their research note, this customer is
not likely to come back. Since no other firm has disputed
MKM's research, I must assume it is so.
So, we have the DTN-X, Cloud Xpress (sp?), the
Transmode Metro product and the older DTN. With the exception of
the momentary hicup from the Transmode product, these products are
still generating very healthy revenue growth for INFN The
company is guiding for "$255M plus or minus $5M" (as stated in CC).
This represents a revenue growth of 23% YoY. The
company is still on track to achieve a Yearly revenue run rate of
$1B, even with the loss of the Transmode customer.
I too believe that even though the Transmode is off to a
very slow start outside of the customer that walked away, it is
positioned for a market segment that is growing. INFN may
have dropped the ball here, but they have a healthy roster of
customers globally. It should be a player in this segment and will
up its game to ensure that it can cross sell it into existing
customer geographies. The Infinite Engine product announced
recently will deliver multi-terabyte per line card. This product
will future proof Infinera company for several more
years.
INFN is now trading at a forward
PE of ~14 even if I assume a lower growth rate than this next
quarter (at 23%) and bring it down to 17% it is still undervalued,
IMO. Its Price to Sales is below 2 and Price to Book at 2.18.
It is acquisition bate.