Jamok,
The NOK-ALU combo is getting a lot of attention, it is
indeed beginning to feel a bit like INFN. I continue to
firmly believe that the stock has a lot of upside from here, as you
know I expect NOK to reach $14, I do not think this is too
optimistic.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch is saying that Suri has
sandbagged the possible synergy savings/cost reductions, they
believe it could be twice what was stated, or $1,8B not $900M.
If they are anywhere close to being correct, I would expect
Suri to keep dribbling better than expected synergy cost reductions
quarter after quarter, boosting the stock along the way.
On the product sales side, I would say with a lot of
confidence that NOK will eat Ericson's lunch. My reasoning:
Ericson had both NOK and ALU on the ropes for the past several
years, Ericson never went for the kill. NOK was collapsing
because their handset division was bleeding them dry, had it not
been for Microsoft's bone headed decision to pay an arm and a leg
($6B or $8B, I forget) for the handset division NOK would still be
a walking dead company. ALU was nearly bankrupt for years,
heck! Since 2006!!
Ericson's management is not that good, IMO. Suri is
a far more capable guy; he runs a tight ship.