lt cap,
ALU/NOK starts to feel a fair amount like the INFN story that
unfolded - analysts who left ALU for dead when they were facing
possible bankruptcy are coming back for another look - some based
on the pending deal, some based on performance and outlook. But it
keeps getting analyst upgrades, and significant upward jumps (as
per the CC) on good news. It may mean that we won't see anything
below high $3's again, as the upward momentum gathers more steam.
Drat! Yes, I know it's hard to grip about profitable moves on a
stock that is my largest position, but somehow I can manage it
:-)
It does, though, really present a dilemma - If I really have
faith in the above thesis, now is the time to buy - even tho all my
shares were accumulated lower. OTOH, there could be some downward
surprise (micro or macro - more likely the latter I think) that
could pull the stock down to better prices. Haven't had the guts to
pull the trigger again here yet. But if I think about it this way,
it may get a lot easier to wade in: Obvious that if it continues on
an upward track that shares bought here will be a good idea. If one
buys shares here, and there's a serious downward price event,
yeah, buy more there (depending on what's depressing it), and treat
the shares bought here as a long-term proposition, given that your
timeline really extends out even as far as 3 1/2 years. On INFN,
how many times did my holdings turn green/red/green/red over time
before it flew? Enough to think I was watching a lit Cristmas tree
on my computer screen.
Probably not worth this mention, as I've really said the same
about ALU before in terms of the use of faith as part of the
strategy. And no one knows what the future holds. The press is way
behind on a number of problems - saw an interview with Ted Koppel.
He's just written a book about the near-certainty of a cyber
take-down of the power grid system. His advice is for everyone to
stock a 6 month supply of food and water. (He overlooked an obvious
mistake - and a shotgun.) What's irritating is that this is not
news - that danger has been known for a long time, and in the end
he's only pointing to the fact that there is no govt. plan on how
to prepare for such a near-certain event. Yeah, might sound a bit
looney or Cassandra-like, but if I was a Jihadist against the great
Satan of America, I'd be working on code to make it so.