First let me address my take on ALU as a standalone
company: I believe that ALU on its own would still be a
nicely profitable investment, but it may have taken the full four
years to see the $7 to $8 PT that I had in mind when I started to
accumulate. So I would still hold it if the deal had fallen
through.
That said, there is no question that a combined NOK-ALU
would be a far stronger company that either one on its own.
In other words, I like this investment far better now that
NOK is involved.
On the Elliott Management involvement: I see little
to no risk with them being involved. I doubt these
folks would rock the boat to the point where NOK walks
away. They should have a decent idea regarding how far they
can push NOK. Activists are typically very smart, I am sure
they have done a great deal of research/due diligence before
getting involved. In addition, they see an opportunity on
potentially getting NOK to sweaten the deal given that there
already is another firm that has called for a better
price.
In short, I am quite positive that Elliott Management has gotten
involved, it gives me a great deal of comfort that others see the
potential in the NOK-ALU deal.