TTWO
Board Highlights
Message List Post Message Reply to
this Message

MSG # GO



Rap Sheet

Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

06/30/15 at 1:19 PM CDT

 

 

READ: 7

RPLY: 1

0

0

RECS:0

Sentiment:

Neutral

Reply to:

MSG`#2763,`06/30/15
By LongTerm CapGains

 

Re: Activist investor Elliott Management takes a small stake in ALU

lt cap,

That's a very interesting article on Ichan-like 'raiders' pressing for a better deal with NOK from ALU. I'm really not familiar with the granular details of such actions but:

1. I'm wondering whether this is bad news from the viewpoint that such 'raiders' have no interest usually in the long term welfare of a company, rather than wrangling something from them that makes them money and then disappearing, on to the next lamb to the slaughter. I may be wrong on that.

2. If the Nokia deal becomes uncertain, or worse, 'dead', my guess would be that ALU shares would be in for a rough time - while there are skeptics on the benefits of the deal, seems the majority of opinion was that it was quite a good idea, and that's when ALU's price took off. My guess is that if it were to fail, in the short term ALU may get quite beat up. But IIRC, you were bullish on ALU as a stand-alone company, a good while before NOK rumors and then confirmation occurred.  Wondering if I've got that right. INFN taught us that standing some immediate pain is worth the wait. Your 'buy' target was in the low 50's - in light of this wrinkle, I'd think you must hold off and see how the dust settles (article points out that ALU now trading below the 'buyout' price), before commiting more capital, perhaps.

On a different OT tangent - interesting reuters/bloomberg video in the news talking about how widespread companies using non-GAAP vs. GAAP accounting to fudge what their real profitability is, and the high employee stock compensation that doesn't get included in non-GAAP accounting. Cites MSFT, INTC, not doing this, while GOOG, Facebook, Linked in, and others obfuscate earnings in this maner. Point being that its pretty much an industry-wide practice and problem, not restricted to egregious violaters like EA.

Speaking of which, there doesn't seem to have been a lot of discussion about whether the VG sector has some investable names, outside of EA and GME. With prices seeming to fall across the board (e.g., ATVI, TTWO), are they worth a look? I've sworn off TTWO, but I'm wondering how ATVI's prospects are fairing. Or maybe we have covered it, in a sense - Jester's regular hw/sw tracking being way behind last cycle might be the commentary on that. The availability of Xbone at $350 w/the Master Chief collection included perhaps speaks to that, as well. 

 

 

 

 

Copyright 2014 All Rights Reserved; Patent Pending