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Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

04/30/15 at 12:11 PM CDT

 

 

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Sentiment:

Neutral

Reply to:

MSG`#2606,`04/30/15
By LongTerm CapGains

 

Re: OT - With the drop in NOK, the deal premium is now gone

OT - ALU/NOK

HB - I had thought from the article yesterday - about the no. 2 ALU shareholder finding the deal unacceptable - said that the ALU side of it didn't matter, as only NOK shareholders would vote on the deal. Not that that made sense to me,  but your saying that one path may be for ALU to pressure NOK for a better share %age deal, given NOK's earnings. Can I assume we're talking about NOK shareholders in the first instance and ALU execs or Boards in the 2nd?

I am the Anti-Jon, having picked precisely the place not to buy ALU yesterday, lol. But we're all familiar with volatile stocks in the sector, so this trip is rideable, too.  The somwhat 'polarized' stance of analysts can be confusing - some seem to think NOK/ALU is a great fit, other the opposite. I'm dimly mulling accumulating more, but given the conflicting implications of 1. If ALU reports poorly, maybe the ALU holders settle down and the deal goes through, or maybe the deal starts to unreavel, and the poor earnings punch the stock some more. I'm quizzical about whether to add here, as I am stepping out of the 'very small' position if I do another buy. I see you've mulled it HB, and bit. It is always nice to have a heavy anchor of cheaper shares to have higher buys not move the 'average' needle much - kudos to you and Jon.

If the deal unravels, ALU likely gets hurt, yes? Perhaps to the low 3's before the merger news emerged? Or does the lowball bid, with the built-in premium, ameliorate that?

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