BBI Message Board

 

Reggie Abaca
12/13/08.4:10.AM

Analysis Mkt Cap: 233.26M Total Debt: 854.30...

73

 

Reggie Abaca
12/13/08.3:37.AM

Media Coverage There's a good article on Motley Fool...

75

Blockbuster Inc. Analyst Oversight

 

Michael Pachter
TTWO BBY GME ERTS

Moderated By
Perry Rod

 

Stacey Widlitz
BBI

Moderated By
Market Rap

Blockbuster Inc. Media Oversight

 

Rick Aristotle Munarriz
BBI

Moderated By
Reggie Abaca

Blockbuster Inc. Featured Analysis

 

Michael Pachter Overestimates, Take Two Interactive Shares Tumble

by Perry Rod, Published: August 12th, 2010 9:07 PM CDT

Call it the Pachter effect.

Video game analyst Michael Pachter, who himself has seemed to admit in the past that his monthly U.S. sales estimates for publishers come without much extensive research, has perhaps managed to help move Take Two Interactive’s stock (NASDAQ:TTWO) down about 17% in only three days.  How?  On Monday of this week, he threw a dart and estimated that Take Two’s NPD number would be 40 million in sales for July.  He based that on the idea that since Take Two’s hit title Red Dead Redemption sold so well in the first 6 weeks (approximately 2.5M in the U.S.), sales would therefore continue with that kind of fury and come in at over 500,000 for the third month.

He guessed wrong.  In fact, sales estimate website VGchartz.com, which puts out weekly figures, put out its estimate for game sales at around half that number on Tuesday of this week – which is exactly when Take Two shares began to tumble hard, all the way from $10.25 to $8.50.  The shares had been underperforming the market prior to that as well.

I’ve seen Mr. Pachter’s monthly sales estimate impact on video game stocks several times before and have called it “The Pachter Effect.”  Mr. Pachter puts out a number (which in my opinion is rarely even based on company guidance), then the market and other analysts use his figures as a way of judging the company’s performance for that month.  The only problem is his monthly estimates are often way off, so much so that even he doesn’t seem to take his own estimates seriously enough to change his price targets or opinion…

Blockbuster Inc. SELECTED ARTICLES

 

Michael Pachter Overestimates, Take Two Interactive Shares Tumble
Call it the Pachter effect. Video game analyst Michael Pachter, who himself has seemed ...

 

Hopes and Dreams Continue at Take Two Interactive Software
He said in 1993 it was always his dream to run his own media company.  Strauss Ze...

 

Wedbush Morgan Upgrades Gamestop (GME)
Calling Gamestop's guidance "conservative" and citing valuation, Wedbush Morgan senior ...

Market Rap's All Time Top BBI Pickers

  Rank Return Last Action Trades Name Pic
 

1

-100%

Buy`BBI`@`1.21

1

Reggie Abaca

Copyright 2014 All Rights Reserved; Patent Pending