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Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

02/04/20 at 2:37 PM CST

 

 

READ: 4

RPLY: 7

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Sentiment:

Neutral

OT - CIEN

Did a bit of nibbling in calls - CIEN - which was $40.something in the sell-off, is now at $43. Sold Mar. 13 stk $44 calls for $2. If that finishes ITM, it's a 6%+ gain. If it falls back, as it has done each time it approaches $43, I may buy them back.

Followed suit. Just sold 15 Mar 13 strike $45 for $1.81. I'm ok if they get called or not. Still would hold 2k shares.


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Author:

breinejm

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

02/11/20 at 9:11 AM CST

"Just sold 15 Mar 13 strike $45 for $1.81".

Just bought to close out at 0.71. I'll wait to see if I get another opportunity.


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Author:

breinejm

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

02/26/20 at 12:52 PM CST

Jon,

Although my best on CIEN options was much, much less than yours, I'm going to let it ride. I have a hard time imagining an upside catalyst to thie market. Anytime soon, anyway. I dont' think

there's any way for the fear in the market to subside until concrete good news occurs - e.g., profitability is better than expected; the pandemic is demonstrably less disruptive than imagined. And imagined seems to me to be exactly the problem - one can imagine any scernario, from every country being on some kind of 'lock-down', to Mike Pence 'praying' it away and succeeding :-)

With Apple and now Microsoft alreadying warning about impact, I think it just adds to the worry. I see talking heads on CNBCsaying this is a big buying opp - lying, or delusional?

Of course, no amount of Fed easing will make people want to gather in public places to spend money.

Having said all that, why have I not sold anything, while losing big bucks in the sell-off?  I dunno - denial maybe. Or admitting I can't time the market, and figuring that over a number of years it'll straighten itself out.


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Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

02/27/20 at 4:01 PM CST

Well, I treated it as a buying opp. I have increased my QCOM position 50% and added some CIEN. I  am nearly 100% vested in market now, lol. So please get out accordingly.

Jon


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Author:

breinejm

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

03/02/20 at 11:07 AM CST

Jon,

I am surprised that you're all-in on the market. I'd guess that your rationale is that while one can't call a bottom, if you have a long enough timeline, this fiasco should be like the shocks

of 2008, 2001, etc. where, eventually the market recovers and moves higher. It'll be interesting to see what CIEN says at their CC - I'm merely guessing that companies won't have good visibility for positive things, but will to a greater degree have visibility for negative things, given that they should, like APPL, see the disruption in supply chains. But I'm no guru on such things, so let's see how the CC goes. Curious - did you sell calls on the new CIEN acquisition, or are you just going to wait it out?


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Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

03/03/20 at 1:39 PM CST

I would rather not be all in right now, but it sort of happend due to buying opps - as I saw it. I did not do options on these shares.


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Author:

breinejm

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

03/07/20 at 9:44 AM CST

Jon,

CIEN is my largest position. Yesterday some minor analyst downgraded them from 'neutral' to sell. Today ISI Evercore reduced their PT from $48 to $43. I don't understand the reasons

behind the pessimism, especially given their CC recently. Of course they must be subject to supply chain issues. And from what I've read, I do believe that the 5g rollout, at least for the 

consumer, will be a slower process than hyped, spread over a number of years. But it is inevitable, and I feel comfortable with owning CIEN (If someone else knows why they're 

getting downgraded, please chime in.)  I wish I felt comfortable with some other toxic-looking things in my portfolio.


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Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

03/10/20 at 3:23 PM CDT

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