OT - CIEN
Did a bit of nibbling in calls - CIEN - which was $40.something
in the sell-off, is now at $43. Sold Mar. 13 stk $44 calls for $2.
If that finishes ITM, it's a 6%+ gain. If it falls back, as it has
done each time it approaches $43, I may buy them back.
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Followed suit. Just sold 15 Mar 13 strike $45 for $1.81. I'm ok
if they get called or not. Still would hold 2k shares.
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Author:
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breinejm
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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02/11/20 at 9:11 AM CST
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"Just sold 15 Mar 13 strike $45 for $1.81".
Just bought to close out at 0.71. I'll wait to see if I get
another opportunity.
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Author:
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breinejm
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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02/26/20 at 12:52 PM CST
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Jon,
Although my best on CIEN options was much, much less than yours,
I'm going to let it ride. I have a hard time imagining an upside
catalyst to thie market. Anytime soon, anyway. I dont' think
there's any way for the fear in the market to subside until
concrete good news occurs - e.g., profitability is better than
expected; the pandemic is demonstrably less disruptive than
imagined. And imagined seems to me to be exactly the problem - one
can imagine any scernario, from every country being on some kind of
'lock-down', to Mike Pence 'praying' it away and succeeding :-)
With Apple and now Microsoft alreadying warning about impact, I
think it just adds to the worry. I see talking heads on CNBCsaying
this is a big buying opp - lying, or delusional?
Of course, no amount of Fed easing will make people want to
gather in public places to spend money.
Having said all that, why have I not sold anything, while losing
big bucks in the sell-off? I dunno - denial maybe. Or
admitting I can't time the market, and figuring that over a number
of years it'll straighten itself out.
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Author:
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Jam
ok
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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02/27/20 at 4:01 PM CST
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Well, I treated it as a buying opp. I have increased my QCOM
position 50% and added some CIEN. I am nearly 100% vested in
market now, lol. So please get out accordingly.
Jon
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Author:
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breinejm
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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03/02/20 at 11:07 AM CST
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Jon,
I am surprised that you're all-in on the market. I'd guess that
your rationale is that while one can't call a bottom, if you have a
long enough timeline, this fiasco should be like the shocks
of 2008, 2001, etc. where, eventually the market recovers and
moves higher. It'll be interesting to see what CIEN says at their
CC - I'm merely guessing that companies won't have good visibility
for positive things, but will to a greater degree have visibility
for negative things, given that they should, like APPL, see the
disruption in supply chains. But I'm no guru on such things, so
let's see how the CC goes. Curious - did you sell calls on the new
CIEN acquisition, or are you just going to wait it out?
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Author:
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Jam
ok
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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03/03/20 at 1:39 PM CST
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I would rather not be all in right now, but it sort of happend
due to buying opps - as I saw it. I did not do options on these
shares.
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Author:
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breinejm
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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03/07/20 at 9:44 AM CST
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Jon,
CIEN is my largest position. Yesterday some minor analyst
downgraded them from 'neutral' to sell. Today ISI Evercore reduced
their PT from $48 to $43. I don't understand the reasons
behind the pessimism, especially given their CC recently. Of
course they must be subject to supply chain issues. And from what
I've read, I do believe that the 5g rollout, at least for
the
consumer, will be a slower process than hyped, spread over a
number of years. But it is inevitable, and I feel comfortable with
owning CIEN (If someone else knows why they're
getting downgraded, please chime in.) I wish I felt
comfortable with some other toxic-looking things in my
portfolio.
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Author:
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Jam
ok
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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03/10/20 at 3:23 PM CDT
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