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Rap Sheet

Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Conference Call

Date:

10/24/19 at 1:47 PM CDT

 

 

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RPLY: 6

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Sentiment:

Neutral

OT - NOK

NOK - Met earnings, beat on revs. But gave downward guidance for 2020 and (at least temporarily) suspended dividend for the next 2 qtrs, and said when (if?) reinstituted, it'd be based on earnings going forward. Sounds like they're also concerned about cash going forward. Stock off 25%. CIEN and CSCO fall somewhat, apparently in sympathy. Hard to say what to do. Earning that dividend while waiting was a big enticement to hold the stock. By their own reckoning, if 2020 won't be good, when will it be? Bad day at the OK Corral.

Yes, I am so pissed about this on many levels. Suri has to go. He has no understanding or control at this point.


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Author:

breinejm

Subject:

Conference Call

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

10/24/19 at 5:58 PM CDT

Jon,

I wonder whether there's hope of a dead-cat bounce - I have a hard time evaluating whehter the news is properly reflected by the 25% hit the stock took today. On the face of it,

I'm trying to think of a rationale for holding it. And a downstream question becomes - is this company specific or an indicator of the sector? Both NOK and CIEN have mentioned

margins. So, is CIEN a raging buy in its sympathetic ~2.5% downturn today, or will they also report issues with competitive pricing? We may just have to wait until earnings, probably

late Nov/more likely early Dec. I'm loaded as I want to be on CIEN, but the stock is cheap here if they're on the ball with 5g. And I doubt we'd want to write calls from this price, as 

buying CIEN and then writing calls would make more sense, unless something unwholesome is lurking in their report.

And I was worried Intel might mess the bed. CNBC pointed out that earnings before the announcement were around 11x, which seems reasonably cheap. Although I (think) it's next

month that AMD releases it's EPYC? version 2 datacenter chips. 


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Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Conference Call

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

10/24/19 at 6:35 PM CDT

I just looked up ineptitude in the dictionary and Suri came up.  He cannot get anything right. What a mess he has made! 


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Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Conference Call

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

10/28/19 at 7:21 AM CDT

lt cap,

I haven't sold my shares, as I thought we'd get a dead cat bounce, rather than the ugly dead cat drop that today has produced. Aside from the stories about a bunch of class

action lawsuits being filed, and a very interesting yahoo article on why being in the equipment business is so hard to turn a profit (maintaining legacy equipment that's a dead end on

the one hand, and telecom companies and other buyers reluctant to spend capex, thus slowing down the 5g rollout considerably), there's this rather bullish article, with price

target I could only dream about:  marketwatch.com/st...=yahoo

Is there any reason to hold this stock? Or should one head for the hills before it goes even lower? I wish I knew. But I'm certainly pondering pullling the plug.

 


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Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Conference Call

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

10/28/19 at 2:09 PM CDT

Jamok,

Re your question of :   Is it worth holding on?  

Suri is such a serial earnings killer that I truly hesitate to make a "guess" as to wether he has finally cleaned the slate and under-promise to be able to over deliver or if he continues to be way over his head. It is a tough call. Even after the brutal three day drop, today NOK gets another down grade by Credit Suisse (sp?), I guess better late than never.

That said, it is surprising MKM's Genovese is still hopeful that Suri has set the bar low enough.  Maybe for once Suri has done what had to be done?  One can only guess.


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Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Conference Call

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

10/29/19 at 5:01 AM CDT

lt cap,

Thanks for the input. I looked at options, about a month out, and at a strike of $3.50, the premium was about .22. Given the amount of shares I had, that would be of some

significance. But I also looked at today's range - $3.50 low $3.61 high - and pondered how low it might go with no immediate drivers. And, I thought the Marketplace article I

posted on the reasoning behind a slower rollout of 5g than expected (their prediction is that things won't really start going mainstream till 2022) was interesting, and made

some sense. So, in the end, I just decided to cash out at $3.60. 

Curiously, CIEN is trading at $36.35 - I don't think it's been that low in a while. I'm tempted, altho the boat is loaded. Typically, they've slumped with reports like the one

NOK came out with, although last CC they did warn about margins. I think I'll take a look at what call premiums look like so far.


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Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Conference Call

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

10/29/19 at 1:20 PM CDT

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