OT - CIEN
OT - CIEN - Very tough choice about what to do if you don't
already own the stock, or the equivalent of that. 2/3rds of my
position will, surely with no doubt, get called away on 2/22,
leaving me with half the share's I'd like as a 'core' position. The
upward momentum on the stock has been steady and strong
for....months, it would seem. And that upward pressure might
suggest that a lot of people are betting that the current quarter
will be like the last one - very good. Maybe blowout? So, if
one want to spend ~#39k, one could buy the stock here around
$39.05, write Mar. 8th calls (just past the CC) stk $39.50, and if
it finishes ITM, One makes a bit more than 5% on the play. Except
I've seen enough situations before where everything looks like it's
going to be a blast, and the CC somehow is somewhere between
disappointing and a disaster, and you're stuck holding the bag at
what, in retrospect, was clearly an inflated stock price.
So....(rubbing my chin) - I'm tempted to place the bet. But
also.....and this is a hard problem: Given that Mar. 2nd is the
supposed 'deadline' for a China deal, if the news is bad -no deal,
far apart. Or, its equivalent - Trump tweets some nonsense crap
that disparages China and he digs in and gets stubbron (like the
wall), the whole market heads south, eclipsing any CIEN news, and
CIEN follows the flow of the market. Damn - wish the timing was
different. Of course, if by Mar. 2nd he announces a solid China
deal - well, heads on CNBC think the market will appreciate 10%.
Anybody want to buy CIEN @$43?
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I give 10% odds that there's a China deal by the end of the
month, and 90% odds there's an extension, probably by 3 months
because Trump is so lazy. There's no way the market is currently
pricing in much chance of higher tariffs in a few weeks, not after
coasting higher through a fairly dismal earnings season.
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Author:
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Jester
Debunker
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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02/13/19 at 9:29 PM CST
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I bought 500 shares and sold 41.5 strike March 8 calls for 1.04.
This allows me to hold my core position regardless.
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Author:
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breinejm
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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02/14/19 at 9:30 AM CST
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Just a thought re CIEN, I see it's only 30c away from an
all-time high. One algo push and there's a new high and $40 becomes
temporary support to fuel a run to $43 maybe. If it makes a new
high and closes over $40 it might be wise to close out sold calls
to catch that run.
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Author:
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Jester
Debunker
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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02/14/19 at 11:12 AM CST
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I agree. That is why I bought additional shares vs using my core
holding. I expect them to get called. If I can make 7% in 3
weeks, I'm happy. If for some reason the shares do not get called
away, I am happy adding them to my position and having them for
longer term.
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Author:
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breinejm
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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02/15/19 at 9:59 AM CST
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