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Rap Sheet

Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

02/13/19 at 1:12 PM CST

 

 

READ: 3

RPLY: 4

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Sentiment:

Neutral

OT - CIEN

OT - CIEN - Very tough choice about what to do if you don't already own the stock, or the equivalent of that. 2/3rds of my position will, surely with no doubt, get called away on 2/22, leaving me with half the share's I'd like as a 'core' position. The upward momentum on the stock has been steady and strong for....months, it would seem. And that upward pressure might suggest that a lot of people are betting that the current quarter will be like the last one - very good. Maybe blowout?  So, if one want to spend ~#39k, one could buy the stock here around $39.05, write Mar. 8th calls (just past the CC) stk $39.50, and if it finishes ITM, One makes a bit more than 5% on the play. Except I've seen enough situations before where everything looks like it's going to be a blast, and the CC somehow is somewhere between disappointing and a disaster, and you're stuck holding the bag at what, in retrospect, was clearly an inflated stock price.

So....(rubbing my chin) - I'm tempted to place the bet. But also.....and this is a hard problem: Given that Mar. 2nd is the supposed 'deadline' for a China deal, if the news is bad -no deal, far apart. Or, its equivalent - Trump tweets some nonsense crap that disparages China and he digs in and gets stubbron (like the wall), the whole market heads south, eclipsing any CIEN news, and CIEN follows the flow of the market. Damn - wish the timing was different. Of course, if by Mar. 2nd he announces a solid China deal - well, heads on CNBC think the market will appreciate 10%. Anybody want to buy CIEN @$43?

I give 10% odds that there's a China deal by the end of the month, and 90% odds there's an extension, probably by 3 months because Trump is so lazy. There's no way the market is currently pricing in much chance of higher tariffs in a few weeks, not after coasting higher through a fairly dismal earnings season.


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Author:

Jester Debunker

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

02/13/19 at 9:29 PM CST

I bought 500 shares and sold 41.5 strike March 8 calls for 1.04. This allows me to hold my core position regardless.


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Author:

breinejm

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

02/14/19 at 9:30 AM CST

Just a thought re CIEN, I see it's only 30c away from an all-time high. One algo push and there's a new high and $40 becomes temporary support to fuel a run to $43 maybe. If it makes a new high and closes over $40 it might be wise to close out sold calls to catch that run.


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Author:

Jester Debunker

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

02/14/19 at 11:12 AM CST

I agree. That is why I bought additional shares vs using my core holding. I expect them to get called.  If I can make 7% in 3 weeks, I'm happy. If for some reason the shares do not get called away, I am happy adding them to my position and having them for longer term.


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Author:

breinejm

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

02/15/19 at 9:59 AM CST

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