Jon,

Yeah, I was a bit puzzled by the lowering of 2019 below guidance. I thought we were on the cusp or into the ramp up to 5g. Perhaps it's a company-specific issue. But from what I've read, the 5g transition will be a long-rollout affair. Think what I read said that a full rollout will take between now and 2025. Perhaps it requires more patience than we've already shown.

And I don't quite know what to make of the fact that NOK's recent swift rise was apparently due to the good news at Ericsson - If that was/is not realted to NOK, then I ponder why it hasn't had a meltdown today to the ~$6 price it had before Ericsson's tailwind behind it?

I too was disappointed with the mediocre 2019 guidance.  It is clear that the cycle has begun, so is management finally managing expectations (i.e. setting the bar low) or are they meeting strong challenges in the Industry?  On one hand, Huawei is getting shut out of deals across several countries, which leaves Ericson and Nokia to divide the spoils, then on the other hand the up cycle is clearly starting, albeit slowly.  Therefore, it just does not make sense.  I can understand if the next 3 to 6 months won’t be a major ramp up in revenues, but it should not be a flat comparison YoY.  I would have expected a slow but steady ramp in revenue growth for 2019, then an acceleration in 2020.

So maybe I am being stubborn but I will continue to hold my position.

lt cap,

Always glad to get your take on it. I'm thinking that downsizing my position a bit may make sense, in light of the fact that, as you pointout, NOK's guidance doesn't make much sense unless......they're lowballing guidance, hoping to post blowout numbers. That would be a good strategy, I'd think, as upside surprises get rewarded sometimes to the tune of 15% moves. OTOH, if they're screwing this up.....I'm ok if they finish above or below $6. I'll write more calls, until/if the stock is called away. However, my timing tends to be terrible. I sold all the remaining INFN @$4, and now it's above $5. Ah well. 

I have a feeling, and it's just that (well, plus a few PT upgrades to around $45) that CIEN will have a good earnings in early March, and will get rewarded for it. It feels a bit pricey here, having moved so far so fast in the past couple of months. Doesn't mean it doesn't have more room to run. Just leery of buying it at this price.

I am going to hold on to the position.  I believe that regardless of whether the next quarter or two are flat, the cycle should gather steam in the second half.  The stock is selling for about 1.4 times revenues, it is undervalued relative to where it will be in the next two years.

"then I ponder why it hasn't had a meltdown today to the ~$6 price it had before Ericsson's tailwind behind it?"

Ask and ye shall receive.