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Rap Sheet

Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

07/26/18 at 3:15 PM CDT

 

 

READ: 4

RPLY: 5

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Sentiment:

Neutral

OT - NOK, INTC, AMD

OT - Looks like NOK missed on all but 1 metric, if I read it right - and what seems to have killed them is Suri citing 'pricing pressures' for 5g, which to me means dreaded price wars for market share. Fugly day.

INTC - beat on most everything. Saw story that said datacenter was below expectations, and headlined a 4% aH decline. At  the moment, it's post-that-story, and they're down 1% AH.

AMD - Incredible - up 15% announcing before market open. Appear to have lots of opportunities, analysts are mostly full of praise.

Yahoo Finance has it such that it met revenue and profit metrics.  The currency head winds also made it looked as if revenue was light.  The Euro has dropped some 7% as have many currencies around the globe.

The articles about the results do in fact mis-characterized much of this, including not taking into account the currency issues. That said, the company still has plenty of work ahead, but with 5G kicking in mildy in the second half, it should get easier.

I too think the reaction to the earnings was overdone.  As I said before, it is the Rodney Dangerfiled of the Networking biz, hands down.


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Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

07/29/18 at 12:11 PM CDT

BTW, where Nokia did indeed miss was in gross profits, and important measure.  That, mostly because the product mix has been lousy due mostly to the current low cycle, this should change as the product mix begins to include the early 5G deployments.  Though that improvement should be a slow improvement, picking up some steam in the second half of 2019


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Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

07/29/18 at 12:31 PM CDT

lt cap,

Thanks for the view, esp. on NOK. I'm wondering if you have a view of INFN, which has dramatically dropped from the 10's to the near-low 8's - I really couldn't find info about how the earnings went, but from the stock price, it must've been pretty terrible. I do recall an analyst, several months ago, dropping INFN to underperform, saying that the performance of their equipment at this point is just outmatched by their competitors. Don't know how true that is, but were it to be valid, going into what ought to be a secular upswing with a rusty gun doesn't allow for any way to turn things around quickly.

CIEN just dances to its own drummer. After hitting around $27.50 (from memory), it has, bit by bit, slowly retreated into the $25's. And even less news than the other networking stocks to support that. I thought hard enough about selling calls when it was past $27, serious enough to put in bids, but got no takers at my price. I'm not much concerned about it - I figure to see where it is in late August, as Sept. (I think) ought to be their earnings, and the premiums on calls traditionally fatten at that point.


Agr :1

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Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

07/30/18 at 1:43 PM CDT

Jamok,

INFN has not reported yet, it does on August 7th, according to ETrade. This quarter is not going to be so so, I believe 2019 should see an inflection point for a lot of networkers.

Agree with the terrible performance of the stock, it is dismal.  They announced a purchase of Coriant, which was onwed by a Private Equity outfit that put together assets they bought from Siemens and the old Telabs.  I am not so sure it is or is not a good move, time will tell.  It is an attempt to diversify their portfolio such that they are not a one trick pony. 

 


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Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

07/31/18 at 7:17 AM CDT

The main problem NOK has is credibility, its CEO did not properly communicate how bad the cycle would be, so it has been some three years of terrible losses for the stock price and every quarter Suri would drivel more bad news, that frankly is not the way to manage expectations.  Now the market just wants to see more than he is delivering, plain and simple.

It will take  real and tangible turnaround in the second half 2018 or first half of 2019 for the market to give NOK any credit.


Agr :1

Dis :0

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Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

07/31/18 at 7:31 AM CDT

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