The whole sector is just crazy-making. Catching CIEN below $25? I wish I had been awake when that happened. It's still off about 2%. And my read of NOK's earnings is that they 'messed the bed', as Neil used to say. And the news reports I'm seeing say that NOK was 7% down earlier. Don't know if that's accurate but it's down less than .2% now. And INFN is rallying nicely, dancing to the beat of some completely different drummer.

What do I make of this? That the el crapo quarter is being dismissed,  and Suri's beating the drum hard for how marvelous things are going to be in the second half is being taken at face value, no looking under the hood nor kicking the tires. Kind of the ultimate 'joke', if one wants to look at it this way: NOK has a bad quarter (50% miss earnings, miss revs) and CIEN takes the dive, lol! Just like the quirkiness of this sector.

While I'm certainly glad to see no effect from the quarter, I'm surprised to see Suri taken at face value. Yes, there has to be a strong secular trend with 5G coming (but still, why does CIEN take  the hit today?)  But Suri has made predictions before that he couldn't meet when the time came to pony up. He started reminding me of Fallon, when the wheels started coming off of INFN. The only upshot being, really, that I think he'd better deliver in second half, or NOK will likely get crushed, I'd think. 

In other news, AMD just crushed everything and is up 11%. It's dragging INTC with it, up 2%. (Altho INTC is going to report soon, I think.) And there's news that INTC just hired ex-AMD CPU guru Jim Keller, away from Tesla, where he currently works. Some months ago they hired away AMD's videocard guru. I think these are good moves, given that all you need is one genius at chip design to make a difference. (And INTC seems to have continuing problems with the 10nm shrink, delayed time and again.)

And also: MSFT announced a major firmware update to Xbox One S and X - lots of minor changes, and one big one - support of 120Mhz. In practical terms, you're not going to be able to run games at 120mhz @ some insane resolution and FPS. But it's going to be a noticeable difference, and be able to take advantage of some of the features of high end monitors - gaming at 1440 w/freesync will be entirely doable, from what I've read. I hope my 4k tv benefits from it, as I use that as a monitor. The idea is to make the Xbox a viable alternative to using a PC to game, especially that the cost of a 1080 and 1080 ti exceed the price of an xbox one x.  I did take the plunge and bought an X, and it seems totally worth it to me, the exception being that on PC I can MP for free, while on Xbox it requires gold. 

Like Jon, I've done nothing with INFN regarding calls. Not sure whether I'll write them, or wait and see what earnings brings.

Jamok,

The initial reaction to NOK was way overdone.  I read the CC transcript and I am not surprised that the trading action during the day reversed the steep loses to the initial reaction in Europe.  There, the stock opened some 8% down.

The backlog growth and the equipment sales mix going into that backlog is what is so positive.  The projected start of 5G is also what is propeling the backlog growth and mix. Even though no specific dates were given for 5G, I have read that T-Mobile starts 5G in this second quarter. VZ and T should be very incentivized to start theirs soon there after.

I believe 5G is what will make the sales mix so bullish when deployment starst.  5G should pull in a lot of Optical and Routing and Switching gear, if so, the company should continue to grab market share going into this long cycle.

BTW, I believe that the penalties slapped on ZTE are way over done.  I can see the ban to sales in the US as standard, but banning them from buying any parts from the likes of all the optical components, all the semiconductor companies in the US quite harsh. IMO this is a Trump tactic to get China to soften up and make trade concessions.  That is confirmed by the DoJ opening a criminal probe into Huaweii also.  Trump is kicking China where it hurst.

That said, it should definitely help both Ericsson and Nokia.  Given that trade is a very slow process to resolve, ZTE and Huaweii will be in the house of pain for quite some time and that should open up many doors for Nokia and Ericsson.  Bullish, regardless of whether the punishment fits the crime.

infn update. I bought 1k shares yesterday to option and just now sold 10 of the May 11 calls, 12 strike at 0.75.  If it gets called, I make 9% in 11 days.  If not, I think downside is limited right now as we head into 2nd half of year and overall 5g rollout and I'll look for another chance to sell calls. 

I also bought 500 CIEN yesterday so added ~1k at ~25.33 cost average this week. Looking to option it out (Jun 1?) doing the earnings play.  If I pulled trigger right now on Jun 1 at 27 strike I'd make 10% in 1 month if they get called. Again, pretty good!  But I am waiting/hoping CIEN gets back to 26.5-27 range and then maybe I can do same with 28 strike.

Lol, today is the day I should have done INFN options!

Jon,

Yes, but you bought the shares lower than the $12.03 it is right now, so I'd think 7% is 7%, regardless of the option price to the stock price. (Yes, I understand, it's dismaying to see it zoom - if you had only waited. But..if you had only waited it might be an $11 stock now, and you'd feel prescient.)

But thanks for the reminder. I've only got about 1100 shares, and I just optioned 6 of them out for May 11th stk 12 (Oh, I see, you're talking about having taken a lower strike - but who knows what happens between now and May 12th?)  If the stock continues to rise, so be it. If it falls before earnings, I may 'cover' my bet by buying more shares. It's not enough money to really worry about.

I'm envious of the prescience in buying CIEN when it was so beaten down. Wish I had thought of that.

I looke up INFN and the expectations are for earnings of -18 cents.

Intel continues to worry me - they've now said the transition to 10nm will happen in 2019 - and the source commented that it might be at the end of that year, rather than sooner. A 3 year delay from the original estimate - it's unlike them to screw this up - or perhaps, more kindly, it must be a bitch to do that shrink and deal with leakage/interference issues to the point that wafer yields are acceptable.

Just sold to open CIEN Jun 8 calls at 27.5 strike for $0.99. 10 contracts matching shares I bought recently.

Jon,

Nice CIEN trade. I bought 500 sh. of INFN to cover the 500 I optioned out stk 12 for .85.  Paid $11.80 for them, so the beat and......(what else is propelling them - guaranteeing  profits in the back end of theyear?) looks like it will propel them into the $12's. Not being able to buy Cien for a reasonable price since the time when you raised the trade, I've been hoping/mulling the idea that if INFN gets propelled upward tomorrow, there's a fair chance CIEN will draft on that, and if so, that's when I was thinking of writing calls. Of course, the problem is I have a basic stake, and no trading shares, but if the price is right, it might be very tempting.