OT - INFN - Morgan Stanley (I think it was them) raised their PT
from $8 to $9.50, maintaining a 'market perform' rating. Not much
love there.
Ups CIEN PT to $29 from $25, with an equal weight
rating.
I sold calls on all my CIEN the other day - Apr 13th stk $26.50
for $1.10. They're flying above $27 today, so I'm a bit sorry I
misjudged it, but it puts the position firmly in the black, after 2
years of being underwater.
Someone tell me if I'm delusional, but from here on out, the
sector seems to be treated by the analysts with some anticipatory
good will in front of the beginning of full 5g rollout beginning in
2019. NOK, CIEN, and INFN have all had nice rallies after their
CC's, even though some of the news didn't seem to warrant that
(e.g., recall lt cap's reaction to NOK's last CC, which was
cautious and somewhat negative - 'they have a lot of work to
do'.) As always, the longer it takes for capex to start
flowing like mana from heavven,, the chances that the macro falls
apart become greater. But who can predict this market.
Read an interesting but complex article that looked at linkage
of US and Euro inflation, bond yields, central bank policies. While
our 10 year treasury is yield nicely north of 2%, the corollary
German bund bond is, .5 (or perhaps it was .05%). The point being
that, and I would have to read it again to be certain, that while
our Fed is heading out of all its QE obligations and raising rates,
Europe's central bank may still be in QE mode? Don't quote me, I
know what I've said is spotty, but I thought on most measures, most
of the world was in a rare lock-step of expansion, and thus rising
inflation would likely be the rule of the day. Which I wouldn't
mind a bit. My 'dream' scenario is that all that inflation I
thought printing $ with no backing *does* finally appear amid good
economic numbers, such as today's 313000 jobs, and inflation
spirals out of control, like it's 1981. Then, inflation hit around
22% at one point, and 30 year Tbills were yielding north of about
13%, IIRC. Locking into that, knowing that inflation wouldn't
always remain high, was a gift from the economic Gods. 30 years of
positive, safe investment, returns. Bring it on.
I would re-buy CIEN on a pullback. Of the 3, I think their CC
was the most solid.
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