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OT - CIEN
<p>OT - CIEN - Just a note on the calls around their CC
date, which I *believe* is Mar. 6th. Stock closed today @ $23.04.
Mar. 2 calls stk 23 midpoint is about .52 cents. Mar. 9 midpoint is
$1.12 which is 4.8% yield. Typical CIEN earnings 'bump'. You can
squeeze it for a bit more if you go out a couple weeks after the
CC. I'm not sure I want to give up my stake which cost me around
$25.50, as we swing towards 2019, spending ought to pick up, esp.
some of their specific customers, if the market doesn't fall apart,
which is uncertain. PTs are consensually a good deal higher, as
they are in good graces with a good number of analysts. Might mull
buying shares and writing calls on them, except that the sector
really is terribly bi-polar in rewarding or punishing CCs these
days.</p>
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Just sold to open 15 contracts of the Mar 9 24 calls for CIEN.
Got almost a $1. Totally ok if they get called away for roughly a
$25 sell price for my shares. Still would hold 1k shares.
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Author:
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breinejm
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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03/05/18 at 9:41 AM CST
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God damn you, Jon, lol
I looked, but I didn't bite. Was ready to do a Mar. 29th strike
24.50's as the session clock wound down, but only then realized
there weren't enough contracts being offered. (And CIEN was at the
low of the session, which didn't help matters). So I'm hoping they
announce an early start on capex spending, and fly high tomorrow. I
have no data to back that up, but since I couldn't find a good
price/profit, I decided to wait. I hope somehow, we're both
rewarded.
Seriously, good luck with that. It'll look especially good if
the pre-bell earnings aren't all that much to yell about. And
thanks for posting the trade - always appreciated.
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Author:
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Jam
ok
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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03/05/18 at 3:46 PM CST
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I'm ok with results. I locked in $24.98 on 1500 shares and still
hold 1k.
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Author:
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breinejm
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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03/06/18 at 8:52 AM CST
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Jon,
Nice play - IIRC, your share-costs are a good deal lower than
the strike. And we're even at this point - I also have 1k shares,
but bot around $25.40. So I'm playing with the idea of selling
calls about a month out. The returns have again turned somewhat
paltry, but of course that's to be expected, now that the 'earnings
bump' to premiums is over. It's tempting to do that, given that the
stock has just been flat for a year or two. The only thing that
might 'stay' my hand is that the closer we get to 2019, the better
the results, and the prospects, ought to be of course, given 5g
starting to roll out in enough markets to matter. So time is on our
side. Unless the whole market tanks, which I feel more sure of than
ever, given that if inflation takes hold, the fed doesn't have that
many bullets to fire - after lowering inflation rates, are we back
to QE bond buying? (Not to mention Trump's inability to
understand the duties of a president, beyond
self-agrandisement.)
And I'm a little bit foggy on inflation - I had read that
January's inflation rate was 0.5%, or 6% annualized. As I wrote
this, I looked for February's rate, but could find nothing - maybe
the numbers aren't available yet. But several sites showed Jan's
inflation as 2.1% annualized - leaving me puzzled - is the 2.1 vs
6.0 difference a core inflation number for the former? Wish I had
some info on whether January was an outlier 'blip' or a trend. And
there is always, at least a chance, that the market intially flips
out over Fed rate hikes, and then gets used to it, looking at the
'bright' side of rate hikes indicating economic vigor.
But INFN is reveling in the CIEN results, while NOK pays no
mind. Anyone know when NOK pays their dividend? I seem to remember
it being in May, but that may be human error.
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Author:
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Jam
ok
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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03/06/18 at 1:02 PM CST
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