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Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

02/20/18 at 3:13 PM CST

 

 

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Sentiment:

Neutral

OT - CIEN

<p>OT - CIEN - Just a note on the calls around their CC date, which I *believe* is Mar. 6th. Stock closed today @ $23.04. Mar. 2 calls stk 23 midpoint is about .52 cents. Mar. 9 midpoint is $1.12 which is 4.8% yield. Typical CIEN earnings 'bump'. You can squeeze it for a bit more if you go out a couple weeks after the CC. I'm not sure I want to give up my stake which cost me around $25.50, as we swing towards 2019, spending ought to pick up, esp. some of their specific customers, if the market doesn't fall apart, which is uncertain. PTs are consensually a good deal higher, as they are in good graces with a good number of analysts. Might mull buying shares and writing calls on them, except that the sector really is terribly bi-polar in rewarding or punishing CCs these days.</p>

Just sold to open 15 contracts of the Mar 9 24 calls for CIEN. Got almost a $1. Totally ok if they get called away for roughly a $25 sell price for my shares. Still would hold 1k shares.


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Author:

breinejm

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

03/05/18 at 9:41 AM CST

God damn you, Jon, lol

I looked, but I didn't bite. Was ready to do a Mar. 29th strike 24.50's as the session clock wound down, but only then realized there weren't enough contracts being offered. (And CIEN was at the low of the session, which didn't help matters). So I'm hoping they announce an early start on capex spending, and fly high tomorrow. I have no data to back that up, but since I couldn't find a good price/profit, I decided to wait. I hope somehow, we're both rewarded.

Seriously, good luck with that. It'll look especially good if the pre-bell earnings aren't all that much to yell about. And thanks for posting the trade - always appreciated.

 


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Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

03/05/18 at 3:46 PM CST

I'm ok with results. I locked in $24.98 on 1500 shares and still hold 1k.


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Author:

breinejm

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

03/06/18 at 8:52 AM CST

Jon,

Nice play - IIRC, your share-costs are a good deal lower than the strike. And we're even at this point - I also have 1k shares, but bot around $25.40. So I'm playing with the idea of selling calls about a month out. The returns have again turned somewhat paltry, but of course that's to be expected, now that the 'earnings bump' to premiums is over. It's tempting to do that, given that the stock has just been flat for a year or two. The only thing that might 'stay' my hand is that the closer we get to 2019, the better the results, and the prospects, ought to be of course, given 5g starting to roll out in enough markets to matter. So time is on our side. Unless the whole market tanks, which I feel more sure of than ever, given that if inflation takes hold, the fed doesn't have that many bullets to fire - after lowering inflation rates, are we back to QE bond buying?  (Not to mention Trump's inability to understand the duties of a president, beyond self-agrandisement.) 

And I'm a little bit foggy on inflation - I had read that January's inflation rate was 0.5%, or 6% annualized. As I wrote this, I looked for February's rate, but could find nothing - maybe the numbers aren't available yet. But several sites showed Jan's inflation as 2.1% annualized - leaving me puzzled - is the 2.1 vs 6.0 difference a core inflation number for the former? Wish I had some info on whether January was an outlier 'blip' or a trend. And there is always, at least a chance, that the market intially flips out over Fed rate hikes, and then gets used to it, looking at the 'bright' side of rate hikes indicating economic vigor. 

But INFN is reveling in the CIEN results, while NOK pays no mind. Anyone know when NOK pays their dividend? I seem to remember it being in May, but that may be human error.


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Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

03/06/18 at 1:02 PM CST

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