ARIA ARIA
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Author:

Jaehyung Yoon

Subject:

Analysis

Date:

08/13/09 at 10:20 PM CDT

 

 

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RPLY: 1

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Sentiment:

Strong Buy

Speculative Investment

I think given the volatility and the spotlight that biotech has received, this is a good company to place a small amount of our hard-earned money for a speculative investment.

Ariad Pharmaceuticals is known for its lead compound called Ridaforolimus.  It's a small-molecule compound for treating cancer, which makes it very compatible and attractive to pharmaceutical business model.  As it stands today, ARIAD is collaborating with Merck & Co., Inc. to globally develop and commercialize ridaforolimus.  It's not an outright licensing, but a co-development, co-commercialization agreement: so a lot of the revenue upside is retained within the company.  Details can be found at ariad.com/wt...ration

Although this is a very primitive way of analyzing the feasibility of the science behind the drug, it is an easy way for non-industry investors: Merck has partnered on the drug.  Merck has previous experience with cancer drugs through its blockbuster Gardasil for cervical cancer, Emend for chemo side effect treatment, and Quadramet for bone cancer.  Quadramet received approval in 1997 so it is either about to, or already fell off patent.  Rida is in phase 3 for soft tissue and bone sarcoma, so we can certainly expect Merck's commitment to getting the drug to market to recycle its existing sales and marketing force, patient advocacy group, etc..  Additionally, Rida is also being explored in metastatic breast cancer; it's currently in phase 2 with positive preliminary data.

The interim results from Phase 3 trial in soft tissue and bone sarcoma should arrive sometime next month, so there is a rally potential for short-term investors. 

The company does have more substance than Rida - Merck slogan: "second oncology product candidate, AP24534, is an internally discovered novel oral multi-targeted kinase inhibitor that we believe has broad potential applications in cancer. AP24534 is currently being evaluated in a Phase 1 clinical study for the treatment of patients with hematological (blood-based) cancers." [excerpt from Ariad website] 

As an investor confidence booster, the CEO of Ariad Pharmaceuticals, Harvey Berger and CMO (chief medical officer) Pierre Dodion purchased $3m and $9999 worth of shares in August 4, 2009.  I believe this is a bold statement from the insiders.

They have set themselves up nicely for either 1) acquisition by Merck, or 2) another biotech phenomenon, or 3) ultimate test of investor patience.  I think this is a complete speculative investment that is extremely risky, but given the stock price at $1.80, investors can certainly limit their loss.

Justin Hall on Seeking Alpha posted a very in-dept analysis of the company, technology, and the opportunity, so here is the link: seekingalpha.com/in...aching


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Author:

Jaehyung Yoon

Subject:

Sentiment:

Buy

Date:

08/14/09 at 11:18 AM CDT

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