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Rap Sheet

Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

07/18/17 at 1:16 PM CDT

 

 

READ: 4

RPLY: 1

0

0

RECS:0

Sentiment:

Neutral

OR NOK and co

lt cap,

In reading the Light Reading article, the similarities with ERIC are less severe, but still followng suit somewhat:

"But the outlook seems bleaker than ever: Executives said they were now expecting the addressable market to decline at a "high single-digit percentage" rate this year, having previously guided for a decline of between 2% and 6%.

Nokia expects its own market to shrink by about 2.2% in 2017, although Ericsson insisted that its latest guidance was in line with external market expectations regarding the radio access network sector."

Perhaps I'm reading it wrong - thought 2017 would be a positive year. . IIRC, in the last CC (or maybe the one before that) NOK did follow ERIC's lead. But we're playing the long game, so after the initial semi-shock of down ~4%, I went back to drinking my coffee.  In the long run, I'd expect the two companies start to diverge in performance.

For ERIC, it seems that each CC they announce more job cuts as cost savings measures, but that never seems to staunch the flow of blood. Maybe they ought to fire everyone - before the market does it for them.

Generally, the market FINALLY seems to be reacting, albeit minorly, to Trump's (what I call) seeming detachment from issues ("I'm going to be really angry if the (Rep's) don't pass a healthcare bill - "Bad dog, Bad dog - go sit in the corner"), lack of uable to formulate or understand policy, and most of all, obviously, his inability to get anything passed in congress. Market has been floating on helium - I still can't pretend to pick a downward move.

Jester: Always interested in info and plays in the VG sector. Sounds like your timing is right.

 

 

ERIC has cast a dark shadow over the sector again.  ERIC is in a very tough position, it is losing market share, I would think that Nokia and specially Huawei and ZTE will pick it apart, piece by piece. Unfortunately, this affects NOK too.  The extent of which we will hear on July 27th when NOK announces its quarterly earnings.

Back to ERIC:  IMO, ERIC is in a very tough spot and frankly, its management is still behind the eight ball, it appears as that all credit ratings agencies will lower their debt to junk status, making the cost of borrowing more expensive.  Their product margins have collapsed, so competing on price is not a good alternative as it will push it further into losses.  No diversification whatsoever, makes them vulnerable.

A Wells Fargo analyst ventured an opinion, stating that ERIC's problems were not only their own but that they are losing market share to lower cost equipment competitors, suggesting that Huawei and ZTE are ERIC's problem.  

 

What I am taking out of ERIC's dire quarter (aside from all of the company specific stuff)is as follows:  the telecom companies are not spending as had been expected, and this will affect Nokia in the midterm.  Until Nokia says otherwise, this is my take.


Agr :0

Dis :0

RECS:0

None

Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

07/19/17 at 8:37 AM CDT

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