How the Fed is likely to
reduce its balance sheet
Interesting article, it seems plausible that this is how the Fed
could reduce its balance sheet. If accurate, rates will
remain depressed for another 7 yeras:
thestreet.com/st...=yahoo
|
|
Lt cap,
Article was somewhat depressive to me, as if the market were to
return to 'normal' mechanics, I'd have some idea of what to buy/get
ride of, etc.
I am still flumoxed by how this market, once Trump was elected,
continue to go rocketing up. And he can't seem to implement his
agenda. Although health care is still a conundrum (As well as
alienating our friens), I'm guess that infrastructure spending
would pass, given that Democrats would back it, but not a
huge 'gift' of a tax cut of the rates charged against businises. I
underastand that *if* such proposal come to fruiition, it's have a
positive market effect. But he hes no choherent poicy, and no
guarantees that it'll get passed on Congress.
And I still don't get things like, in the article, slowly
selling what was 'bought' by the feds/banks, with no effect on
economic growth.
I've always maintained the position that all that'printed money'
with no back would at least have *some* bad effects, but so far,
can anybody tell me whtat they are? It seems ridiculous to me. I
can only see that the 'wealth effect' is a continuing market driver
that is still supported buy the fed. I'd be interested in
anybodys'rationale'/opinion on these matter. I'm just puzzled to
the point where I've bought very little of the market, and not sold
much - because this irrational wealth effect seems like snake oil
to me.
|
Author:
|
Jam
ok
|
Subject:
|
Off Topic
|
Sentiment:
|
Neutral
|
Date:
|
06/05/17 at 2:20 PM CDT
|
|
The money printing has kicked the can longer than I expected.
Just because everyone refers to the current environment as the "new
normal" doesn't mean it's normal though. We have extremely high
valuations, almost no volatility and seemingly nothing matters, and
markets everywhere have been distorted by the coordinated CB
buying. There is almost no price discovery any more, which is
completely irresponsible and has led us to this "everything
bubble". I think we'd have seen far more side effects if only one
CB was doing it, but they're all doing it. We can't really point to
gold and silver reflecting this because they are constantly
manipulated lower, though I see Bitcoin keeps soaring.
The CB's are like Sisyphus trying to push the world economy
uphill, against ongoing fiscal disasters (US budget and pension
shortfalls) and demographics changes, and look out below if they
ever step away, or are forced to back off.
It's utterly crazy to me that just a few short years ago people
were openly mocked as tin foil hat wearing clowns for suggesting
CB's were supporting equity markets, and now look where we are,
with major CB's openly buying shares and admitting they take cues
from the market too.
Speaking of valuations, wow at the likes of EA. With analyst
ests of $4.22 for March 2018 and $4.95 for March 2019, it's now
trading at over 23x earnings almost two years out! One of their big
franchises is now on hiatus too, Mass Effect, after the dismal
performance of Andromeda and subsequent layoffs at the studio.
|
Author:
|
Jester
Debunker
|
Subject:
|
Off Topic
|
Sentiment:
|
Neutral
|
Date:
|
06/06/17 at 9:55 AM CDT
|
|
Jester,
"It's utterly crazy to me that just a few short years ago
people were openly mocked as tin foil hat wearing clowns for
suggesting CB's were supporting equity markets, and now look where
we are, with major CB's openly buying shares and admitting they
take cues from the market too."
Yeah, totally agree. But will we still be lliving when the
sh*t finally hits the fan? How does one invest in such a market? (
And you, with your style may say 'Don't - trade it short
term.
Yeah, I looked at EA's price for fun just a bit ago and
$114 floored me.
The only thing I've seen that's weirder, (and I
unfortunately have a stake in them) is oil giants like Conoco
Phillips, which have had the stuffing beaten out of them, and have
a forward PE of 185$
!!! They did recover some from the bottom, but
still.....it's a damn sanity test to buy a stock like that. They
ought to have a tinfoil hat party at their CC's.
|
Author:
|
Jam
ok
|
Subject:
|
Off Topic
|
Sentiment:
|
Neutral
|
Date:
|
06/07/17 at 3:07 PM CDT
|
|
Valuations are sky high. Truly scary. That said, I
am reminded that momentum (crazy behavior) lasts longer than one
would think. This may yet go much higher, but when it turns
it will be nasty.
|
Author:
|
LongTerm
CapGains
|
Subject:
|
Off Topic
|
Sentiment:
|
Neutral
|
Date:
|
06/09/17 at 7:15 AM CDT
|
|
... If this was sector rotation, I would hate to think what a
full blown correction or worse yet a bear market would be
like!
Of the stocks/sectors I watch, only Financials, retail, oil and
consumer products like CLX and PG were up.
|
Author:
|
LongTerm
CapGains
|
Subject:
|
Off Topic
|
Sentiment:
|
Neutral
|
Date:
|
06/10/17 at 8:06 AM CDT
|
|
LT,
I think the financials were up because the GOP were pushin
through more dismantling of Dodd/Frank to help the big banks. And
thus the cycle is complete. Not even a decade since the last crisis
either.
|
Author:
|
Jester
Debunker
|
Subject:
|
Off Topic
|
Sentiment:
|
Neutral
|
Date:
|
06/12/17 at 9:18 AM CDT
|
|