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Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

06/02/17 at 7:18 AM CDT

 

 

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Sentiment:

Neutral

How the Fed is likely to reduce its balance sheet

Interesting article, it seems plausible that this is how the Fed could reduce its balance sheet.  If accurate, rates will remain depressed for another 7 yeras:

 

thestreet.com/st...=yahoo

 

Lt cap,

Article was somewhat depressive to me, as if the market were to return to 'normal' mechanics, I'd have some idea of what to buy/get ride of, etc.

I am still flumoxed by how this market, once Trump was elected, continue to go rocketing up. And he can't seem to implement his agenda. Although health care is still a conundrum (As well as alienating our friens), I'm guess that infrastructure spending would pass, given that Democrats  would back it, but not a huge 'gift' of a tax cut of the rates charged against businises. I underastand that *if* such proposal come to fruiition, it's have a positive market effect. But he hes no choherent poicy, and no guarantees that it'll get passed on Congress.

And I still  don't get things like, in the article, slowly selling what was 'bought' by the feds/banks, with no effect on economic growth.

I've always maintained the position that all that'printed money' with no back would at least have *some* bad effects, but so far, can anybody tell me whtat they are? It seems ridiculous to me. I can only see that the 'wealth effect' is a continuing market driver that is still supported buy the fed. I'd be interested in anybodys'rationale'/opinion on these matter. I'm just puzzled to the point where I've bought very little of the market, and not sold much - because this irrational wealth effect seems like snake oil to me.


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Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

06/05/17 at 2:20 PM CDT

The money printing has kicked the can longer than I expected. Just because everyone refers to the current environment as the "new normal" doesn't mean it's normal though. We have extremely high valuations, almost no volatility and seemingly nothing matters, and markets everywhere have been distorted by the coordinated CB buying. There is almost no price discovery any more, which is completely irresponsible and has led us to this "everything bubble". I think we'd have seen far more side effects if only one CB was doing it, but they're all doing it. We can't really point to gold and silver reflecting this because they are constantly manipulated lower, though I see Bitcoin keeps soaring.

The CB's are like Sisyphus trying to push the world economy uphill, against ongoing fiscal disasters (US budget and pension shortfalls) and demographics changes, and look out below if they ever step away, or are forced to back off.

It's utterly crazy to me that just a few short years ago people were openly mocked as tin foil hat wearing clowns for suggesting CB's were supporting equity markets, and now look where we are, with major CB's openly buying shares and admitting they take cues from the market too.

Speaking of valuations, wow at the likes of EA. With analyst ests of $4.22 for March 2018 and $4.95 for March 2019, it's now trading at over 23x earnings almost two years out! One of their big franchises is now on hiatus too, Mass Effect, after the dismal performance of Andromeda and subsequent layoffs at the studio.


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Author:

Jester Debunker

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

06/06/17 at 9:55 AM CDT

Jester,

"It's utterly crazy to me that just a few short years ago people were openly mocked as tin foil hat wearing clowns for suggesting CB's were supporting equity markets, and now look where we are, with major CB's openly buying shares and admitting they take cues from the market too."

Yeah, totally agree. But will we still be lliving when the sh*t finally hits the fan? How does one invest in such a market? ( And you, with your style may say  'Don't - trade it short term.

Yeah, I looked at EA's price for fun just a bit ago and $114 floored me.

The only thing I've seen that's weirder, (and I unfortunately have a stake in them) is oil giants like Conoco Phillips, which have had the stuffing beaten out of them, and have a forward PE of 185$

!!!  They did recover some from the bottom, but still.....it's a damn sanity test to buy a stock like that. They ought to have a tinfoil hat party at their CC's.



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Author:

Jam ok

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

06/07/17 at 3:07 PM CDT

Valuations are sky high.  Truly scary.  That said, I am reminded that momentum (crazy behavior) lasts longer than one would think.  This may yet go much higher, but when it turns it will be nasty. 


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Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

06/09/17 at 7:15 AM CDT

... If this was sector rotation, I would hate to think what a full blown correction or worse yet a bear market would be like! 

Of the stocks/sectors I watch, only Financials, retail, oil and consumer products like CLX and PG were up.


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Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

06/10/17 at 8:06 AM CDT

LT,

I think the financials were up because the GOP were pushin through more dismantling of Dodd/Frank to help the big banks. And thus the cycle is complete. Not even a decade since the last crisis either.


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Author:

Jester Debunker

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

06/12/17 at 9:18 AM CDT

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