lt cap,

Jeez, none of this sound too cheery. If their 'model' is right, I'd think the shrinking capex output, coupled with competition (maybe ERIC will play the 'dead man's float' this time around?), seems to set things up so there's not going to be any good news to kite things on for quite a while. But Avi Silver is not a God, and analysts are certainly not always right. (INFN was left for dead when it was around 6.) It may simply mean that I've sunk a lot of money into companies (INFN, CIEN, NOK) that really will take a ton of patience, with NOK having the biggest chance of streamlining, clearing dead wood, etc. and showing some results of synergies, ahead of good news for the other companies. 

I wish I had Jester's hand at options - there probably are ways to trade my way into a better position with INFN and CIEN while waiting for them (when?) to head back into the 20's. But I'm not Jester :-)

Unfortunately it does not sound cheery.  However, I am totally playing this from a contrarian point of view. I plan to continue adding to the NOK position.  We have to remember that even though Wireless revenue is set to decline, NOK is undervalued and as the company restructures and is able to get the synergies right, the stock should march forward towards the $8 to $9 within the next 18 months, IMO.  Then when 5G starts deployments around the 2018 timeframe in the US and Europe revenues for NOK should swell dramatically and its stock should break above the $11 mark.  I may be frustrated with the short term valuation the market is assigning to NOK, but I remain very positive and bullish on the "unlocked value" story here.

lt cap,

In the end, I also want to acquire more NOK- perhaps even to get some 'trading shares'  - but I'd like it better at a better price (who wouldn't?), and that seems to be the $5.70's at the moment. The outlook certainly seems mixed to me - NOK I think will get lifts as synergies get worked out and good news is released as they go along. And I've said long term the secular growth seem almost guaranteed in the sector, I can see bumps in the road - e.g., the 5G deployment starts in 2018, but I read somewhere that it really isn't going to be a big factor until around 2020 in terms of adoption - although the article said that was for businesses - I thought 5g was just the next iteration of speed of data transmission for smartphones, not necessarily business-centric. And I'm an amateur, but it's my guess that the telcos are going to be just as stingy in buying the eqiupment needed for 5g, finding ways to restrict access, get as much $ per packet of data as they can while keeping capex as low as possible - kind of just like now. 

Much as I hate Microsoft, perhaps NOK could take a page from their book - design viruses that make InPhi's software solution for DCI boxes unstable and give the equivalent of the 'blue screen of death'. Payback time.

The 5G deployment will take years to fully deploy.  The US, Europe and Japan will be first, IMO.  It is true that peak deployment will not be in 2018-2019, but it will be an inflection point in the expectations.  Right now the expectations have dropped dramatically as everyone expects Wireless to be a drag, so it would make sense for expectations to turn positive as deployments begin.

Jamok, NOK option plays are terrible because they are so far apart, for example stock a fraction under $6 and the available options are in 50 cent increments. Meanwhile EA around $64 and it soptions are also in 50 cent increments, so 10x more granularity, giving you much more flexibility. I've had success twice now buying in the $5.7x range and selling on the pop towards $6.

Jester,

Yes, I've learned about that frustrating no-win situations with stocks with a low (e.g., under $10 or so) price - the numbers just don't make sense in terms of risk/reward, and the final factors that crushes it even further, as you know, is the .75 per contract or whatever your broker charges for that on top of the commission. Your trading it instead - the cycle between the $5.70's and low $6's seems to have worked well, so far.I know that for stocks like Apple, where share price is measured in hundreds of $, one can buy contracts on 10 shares, rather than 100 shares-per-contract. You'd think it would make sense to have some opposite provision for stocks whose shares are low, as in NOK.