INFN: Buy on Over-reaction to
Inphi, Says Deutsche
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I read the Deutch story yesterday and hoped to God that this
analyst is right, and we'll see $26 again on Infinera. And
today's a good day for INFN and CIEN, so I can't gripe too much.
But I am quite underwater on those 2 stocks. I wish I knew more
about this technology from a software/hardware engineer's
prospective - It sounds like InPhi's tech will do 40 km, and
they're trying to stretch that to 80 km. (I do understand
that these are not real world benchmarks, but laboratory
conditions.) But if I had the knowledge, I'd know better whether
it's a product that can be improved on with further refinement, or
whether the parameters of what it can do only go so far (pun not
intended.)
And the things I've read of analysts coming out and defending
INFN, saying InPhi will only marginally be a problem is nice. I
just hope it's true. As I've done, I'll sit with both stocks and
hope for a return into the 20's. My amateur guess is that CIEN has
about 1 more disappointing quater before losing serious street
cred. I think INFN's short-term prospects ride pretty much on what
Fallon has to say, since if he doesn't address it in the CC, he
will surely be asked how disruptive InPhi's product is to
business.
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Author:
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Jam
ok
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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03/29/16 at 1:36 PM CDT
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Jamok,
IMO, the arguments being used to
defend INFN have a certain amount of validity, certainly it does
not affect the 90% of the revenues from the rest of the product
portfolio, the Cloud Express product is only targetted to be 10% of
the overall revenue pie. Then there is the fact that at most,
InPhi's product affects the segment of the Data Center market that
is less than the 80 kms as claimed by InPhi's PR. Then there is the
question of whether that PR stated the theoretical (Lab
Environment) max range, the key question is, is InPhi's new
technology really limited to distances less than 40kms or even
less? Then, there is the question of: Can they perfect
it to achieve greater distances, and if so, what range? I
doubt we will get the level of detail from Fallon as to all of
these questions, but I believe it will suffice if he makes at least
some high level defense of Infinera's Technology and why InPhi does
not pose more than a marginal threat for the foreseable future.
It will also help if INFN can deliver a quarter that shows
solid growth across their overall product portfolio, that would go
an even longer way towards easing investors concerns.
One would have to be not just a
Communications Hardare Engineer, but more specifically one
specialized in Fiber Optics to have some of these
answers.
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Author:
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LongTerm
CapGains
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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03/29/16 at 2:39 PM CDT
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