lt cap,

It's good to hear some analysts defending INFN here - it certainly needs some support, and as we spoke of in PMs, Fallon speaking out on what InPhi's innovation means for INFN would be the best form of reassurance.

I'm glad your eyes are on these things, as my ability to understand the technical details of the workings of such optical equipment is limited, and the research I that is regularly available to me is quite poor.

You've said the damage is limited to the DCI box and InPhi's technology can only take..(a signal, I presume) perhaps 50km. And this is only one segment among several that INFN manufactures. But I try to imagine how internally disruptive to INFN this might be - I'd (presume - maybe wrongly) that they've got engineers software and hardware assigned the this product, a manufacturing process that may involve obligations, and perhaps other capex costs that they're 'tied' to, but for a product that now doesn't have a market. 

I'd think simply restructuring around that suddenly obsolete product would be a drag, greater or lesser, to some degree. How much? - I hope Fallon will tell us.

Regardless, thanks for keeping everyone informed.

MKM Partners have had extensive INFN coverage in the past, I am waiting to hear them come out to defend the stock.  Even though Goldman's  Simona Jankoswski lowered her rating on INFN at much higher prices, I would expect/hope to see an upgrade from Goldman given the drop in price, If these were to happen, it would go a long way in reassuring INFN's investors.

I found it interesting that the spin given on InPhi's range was the theoretical 80Kms (i.e. Lab conditions), not the real range that is likely to work under in real live conditions.  If indeed it is only limited to ~40Kms, then the segment is not totally obsoleted.

Sometimes press releases have a tendency to be less than honest. Still, InPhi is one company worth following given that they have made significant inroads into a high end segment of the industry

lt cap,

IIRC, MKM ws either in the lead in upgrading INFN when everyone hated it, or perhaps it was that they had them on the equivalent of a 'conviction buy' list for quite a while (perhaps is the 20's when they thought it was ahead of itself - not sure about that last part.) So I think that's a good thing to point out what the 'believers' believe at this point. And like it or not (InPhi croaked my substantial stake in INFN), your implied suggestion that keeping an eye on InPhi as an investment is probably a good idea.

Without knowing anything substantial - I no longer hear talk of INFN as a buyout candidate. I wonder if InPhi is. I was hoping they might be a one trick pony but your mention that they made inroads suggests to me they have a variety of products. I'll have to look it up.

MKM did in fact stated that INFN was ahead of itself.  I did too when it closed in and then went above 20.  Today, I believe that even with this InPhi announcement, which remains to be seen how significant it is, I view INFN as undervalued. Re InPhi's product, I do think it is a great milestone for this company, but I do believe the impact to INFN's business will not be catastrophic, I believe it will be small, given the actual distance that InPhi's product works in. Now, don't get me wrong, small impact or not, in this market it affects sentiment, so this is what INFN is going through.  

It is up to Fallon and the company to prove the market that good growth lies ahead, anything short of that and the stock goes nowhere.

lt cap,

Thanks for more 'color' on your thinking on INFN. And I agree completely - if Fallon were to come out now, rather than the next CC, with defensible statements, it would help tremendously, given the street cred he's built up. But silence doesn't mean he's got nothing good to say, so it will just be puzzling if he doesn't speak out, because the one thing we can be sure of is that it's going to come up one way or another in the CC. It could be that mgmt. at INFN is trying to calculate just how this InPhi will affect them, given that it was a surprise announcement. 

On a practical level, it doesn't change much for me. I toy with the idea of buying more INFN, and perhaps selling covered calls against it - but who can tell whether it'll visit the $13's again, or become a 'buy the dip' target now. So, unless I see a really ridiculously cheap valuation, I'll probably just sit tight with this somewhat burdensome position, click in my seatbelt, and go along for the ride - pending any new developments or news.