NOK in the run for VZ's GPON
upgrade
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lt cap,
Thanks for doing all that digging - I could find nothing on the
usual financial news about this blow to INFN. I wish it was a
rational market, since the -7% drop in INFN would mean that this
new tech will significantly cripple them (and me, as I've got a
substantial position), and CIEN might be up 4% because some people
apparently thinks they may be/are the 'winners' when VZ announces
its buildout vendors.
However, of course it's not a rational market, so I don't see
how one can really 'play' this, unless, as you have to some
degree, made a judgment about just how bad this news is for INFN. I
see no analyst comments on this - I'm sure they are to come, but
I'd suppose since this was really a surprise, it'll take some time
for them to digest it. The 4% rise in CIEN puzzles me - the
articles you posted seem to say they do have a dog in that fight
with the new tech, and it's by no means clear that a VZ buildout is
a lock for CIEN as a supplier.
Please do post whatever else you find out - you're quite likely
the only one here who knows where to look. If INFN's DCI boxes just
became obsolete, I've got to wonder just how hard the hit is - new
business would seem unlikely, and I'd guess that existing orders
might be cancelled. Not a grand outlook. My memory is that INFN
always has their quarterly CC near then end of a month. I haven't
checked it, but I'd guess the end of April. Too long to hear
Fallon's comments - perhaps they will put out an interim
announcement to staunch the flow of blood, if they've got a
legitimate way to reassure holders like me.
And, just by the way, I looked at what covered calls for April
stk $15 would yield - pretty sucky - about 3% - not worth the risk
in the face of the volatility right now.
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Author:
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Jam
ok
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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03/22/16 at 1:46 PM CDT
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INFN does have good business in the Data Center, so it may lose
a good portion of it. To be clear, what Inphi has done sure
raises some concerns, its technology should not be dismissed. That
said, I really believe that the selling in INFN is overdone.
INFN has been weak for several months.
I have a strong gut feeling that
this development was known in select circles and a lot of this bad
news was already priced in, with the final icing on the cake on
this news release today. I would like to hear opinions either
way.
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Author:
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LongTerm
CapGains
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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03/22/16 at 2:06 PM CDT
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