Warnings - INTC CAT -

lt cap,

I don't know why you and Jester are such negative noobs. Always looking at the worst possible scenario. Sure, CAT warned - and the forecast of ~.90 now cut to .65-.70 is a fact. But they're up almost $2 today. (Damn - I sold them for tax loss selling around $70 in Dec., thinking mining wasn't going anywhere soon - silly me.) But back to the point - in the future, everything will be great. CAT confirmed its full year outlook - and so the street is 'buying that' - altho it could be that, the full year projection is an'irrational number' - like in mathematics. Or maybe an imaginary number. Whatever. They could say whatever they want to douse the fire sale that might've happened if we only looked at the short term.

Same with INTC. I fail to undertand your long term ire over this stock. Yes, PCs are dying. But in the future, Intel's R and D will come through with technology that allows them to make blazing fast chips - out of common tapwater. Some people in Ethiopia may die of thirst because INTC's future fab there will monopolize the water supply. Just the cost of doing business.

But seriously, I don't know why the street believes CAT long term when their short-term prediction is so far off the mark. On INTC, I continue to be a beliver - perhaps a delusional one, but I think they're not burying their head in the sand - they're trying to transform themselves into a multi-dimensional company. It may not work - but I think it will. Also - this is just opinion - but there are emerging markets that INTC may have a nice part of - read some articles on VR devices - Occulus, Vive, etc. Said the 'suggested requirements are likely to be the 'minimum requirements', and the lowest ones are an INTC 4590 (others cited the new skylake - i6500 or 6600 and above), and an Nvidia GTX 980 or, possibly, an AMD R390X. Real world performance is likely to be needful of faster chips above those specs. Again, just my speculation, but just as playstation and xbox looked puny at introduction, I think VR will become wildly popular mainstream. AMD might actually benefit, as their cpus are in ps and obone   (but I don't think the current in-box chips can cut it - I may be wrong.)  In any case, I *think* holding INTC is a 'getting paid to wait' story. And so far, analysts seem to be buying the excuse of earnings shortfalls. Unfortunately, I have to admit that your prediction that if earnings of co's keep missing their targets, the analysts will have to come out of denial, and the Fed's 'lego' proclaimations (did you know that you can make anything out of legos?) such as 'extended' raising of rates will take another different shape.

And *waaay* of topic but interesting to me - read an Al Jazeera article that explained the popularity of Trump and Clinton in a way I had not heard before, and will never hear from first-world media: Essentially he said: Trump and Clinton are two sides of the same coin: Trump is the 'real' face of corporate America, while Clinton is the 'mask' of Wall St. and corporate America - essentially, she's the usual 'camoflaged disguise' of what Trump openly is. Americans love bargains - so why buy the 'fake' package, when you can get the 'real thing' on sale? Helps explain to me why I feel nauseous every time Clinton says she will fight for the middle class against the 1%, and thus make America 'whole' again. What a load of facetious crap. She is the 1%. Trump flaunts his being a billionaire 1%er. Which is scary and troubling. But at least he's not lying in that respect.

Jamok,

You are right, I may sound negative on INTC.  However, I am actually neutral,  I have stated that I am of the opinion that INTC's R&D is the best when it comes to PC and Server Processors.  It’s R&D and the new technologies as you cite are quite likely to be the future for INTC, one that could be quite profitable.  I simply think this transition, which has been ongoing for over three years, would be long.  Tough to know when things like VR and AR will cause enough of an uptick to make a real difference in INTC’s profitability. If past history is any guide, it could still be several more years.

As to CAT and the market, it is crazy; maybe I am being too cautious. I just think there are plenty of obstacles which could cause a new leg down.  On the economy I am glad things are moving along, maybe not gangbusters but generally speaking in the right direction.  It just bothers me that Europe and Asia are not going in the right direction, that is a concern.  Then there is the National Politics, talk about crazy! 

lt cap,

Yah - CAT kind of knocked my socks off with its resurgece since I tax-loss sold it. I can't see why the future looks much more rosy in terms of the basic materials of mining. On INTC, I do quite agree with you that their 'transformation' will take several years at least, and I see the possibility, esp. in a negative market, that they'll be punished for misses or disappointments during that period. Although analysts tend to give them a 'pass' on such events, there must be a point at which that goodwill dissipates. One might think of that as buying opportunites, perhaps. AMD is doing its 'crazy dance' again - went from $3 to $2, and now in a relatively short period climbing towards $3 again. There is a story out that INTC may have made an agreement (or perhaps it's done) to get AMD's graphics licensed to INTC. Big win for AMD if so, as part of AMD's downside is 2 billion dollars in corporate debit (!)  INTC may feel it needs AMD not to 'die' to avoid anti-trust violations - although that issue seems much less of a threat when they were the only 2 producing cpu chips of large numbers. Or, perhaps it's just a good-business decision - rather than develop their own advanced and discrete graphics devices, it may be a more sound finanical decision just to buy the rights to start with. (Or maybe as a component they need to make whatever chips or devices they have in mind.)

CISCO keeps on marching north. I wish I knew more about what driving them, while other companies in the space dance up and dance down.

The idea of AI medical equipment had been brought up a fair while ago. I picked Intuitive Surgical at random as a stock to watch. Brownian motion up and down, but today rose 3.5%. No news story from my brokerage, but my brokerage's research sucks.