lt cap,
CapEx seems to always be the question with the telecoms, at
least. And short term, I'd expect them to continue to drag their
feet, as ATT did by misrepresenting 'unlimited data' (yeah, 2G
after a certain point) badly enough to draw a $100 mil. fine for
the FCC (peanuts to them, why should they care?) But, as the
ZD Net article I think I spoke of here, 4g is way oversubscribed,
so one may hope that perhaps they'll need to open the purse strings
a bit.
I'd be surprised if Google's network build-out will be broad
enough for the forseeable future to force any hands at the
telecoms/isps. Still, with the speeds they are claiming, I'd think
where they do operate they'd be a very viable threat to the
veritable monopoly practices as they exist: e.g., I can be a
'slave' to Comcast, or.....what? Nobody else, except perhaps
satellite systems covers where I live. I think that even if Google
prices simply matched Comcasts speed/prices (and I mean *real*
speed, not the theoretical kind), a whole lot of people would
switch simply as a 'piss off' gesture to Comcast. I know I
would.
On the issue of 'small cell' technology, it was quite some time
ago that Jon and I were wondering if the makers of those cells
might be a good investment. We watched Cavium go from around 40 to
70, and then back up some. Not sure where they are at the moment,
but I'd think (layman's understanding) that's a cheap work-around
fix for telecoms to spend some real money for a while in congested
city areas. I don't think either of us established a position.
The one thing that I bet on day in and out, like a number of
folks here (hey, well, we're only a number of folks, but I like the
company :-), is that demand for bandwidth cannot decline. It may be
delayed, but like Jim Rogers said in the 1980's about China - he
didn't care if there was social upheaval, civil war, etc. - china
would eventually be the #1 superpower in the 21st century. So he
moved his family to Singapore and put his daughters in class to
learn Mandarin - which he said would be like English in terms of
the universal 'monetary language'.
Perhaps bandwidth growth is not quite that robust - World War
III would probably put a real crimp in bandwidth demands. Beans and
Bourbon would be the only viable currency. But my bets are *waaay*
overweighted in ALU, INFN, and CIEN, and my positions are all
underwater currently, but I don't have problems with sleeping at
night.
Why Ericsson decided to stand pat really is a good mystery.
You'd think they know their business. (But then, Blackberry got way
off track - although they've made the most of it since then, and
didn't just disappear.)
On the other hand, on the other side of the world, I read a
story about a 'smartphone' that has been developed that would cost
$7 in India. Although the validity/viability of the device is
apparently in question. But if it's real, then I think the idea
that actually happens a fair amount of the time - 'toilet diving'
for your smartphone that accidently has ''hit the soup', would no
longer be under consideration as an Olympic event. For 7 bucks, I'm
not going after that phone that accidently got dropped in the
toilet. No way.
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