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Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Date:

02/03/16 at 10:22 AM CST

 

 

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Re Oil and the market

Just some thoughts on Oil and the markets:

Oil and the Market have been in lock step for quite some time, this has not often been the case.  But the drastic decline and the fact that it has killed what was viewed as a true energy revolution in America is what has made it so.

After all, it had been a boom for several states, now these towns have probably crashed along with the oil bust, and many high paying jobs have just disappeared, a shame given that the oil patch was one of the few industries that had supplied plentiful jobs at very good salaries.

Now of course, we have a market wondering how bad the hit to banks may be, and we have entire nations selling portions of their sovereign funds to shore up their declining cash flows and be able to fund their government commitments.  All of which are driving down the markets, rightfully so I might add since equities had gotten too expensive. The Fed of course has for the time being taken the punch bowl away, small impact to the economy as it is, has changed the psychology of investors which are looking at bad news as bad news. I say refreshing! At least until more QE is announced, which BTW, I would not count on, unless we have a serious recession.  Not a prediction just a gut feeling.

All this said, I do believe we hit a bottom when we have a significant number of frakers declaring bankruptcies and it is better understood how much of an impact to the Financial sector this represents.

 

I say this because that would signal a mission accomplished by the Saudis, which then would continue to seek  a commitment from most oil producers for cuts to restore stability to the oil sector.

Check out this remarkable story about the Canada real estate bubble. Vancouver detached homes up from $400K in 2003, $800K in 2009, to $1,825K last month! This despite their economy tanking with oil. I assume their tumbling dollar is a big factor here, drawing in foreign buyers and likely pricing out many locals who are still getting paid what they did some years ago.

zerohedge.com/ne...illion


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Author:

Jester Debunker

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

02/03/16 at 6:31 PM CST

Amazing how people just keep making the same mistakes. It has not even been a full decade since the collapse of the housing bubble!


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Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

02/04/16 at 7:08 AM CST

Jester,

 

After reading the story, it has gotten me thinking that with Canada and Mexico at or near recessions, I am now more worried about the US getting into a recession.  Along with China, these countries are our top three trading partners.  Hard to think we can escape a recession if the top three are in one.  We know Europe is a no show, so that only increases the chances.


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Author:

LongTerm CapGains

Subject:

Off Topic

Sentiment:

Neutral

Date:

02/08/16 at 9:56 AM CST

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