Just some thoughts on Oil and the markets:
Oil and the Market have been in lock step for quite some
time, this has not often been the case. But the drastic
decline and the fact that it has killed what was viewed as a true
energy revolution in America is what has made it so.
After all, it had been a boom for several states, now
these towns have probably crashed along with the oil bust, and many
high paying jobs have just disappeared, a shame given that the oil
patch was one of the few industries that had supplied plentiful
jobs at very good salaries.
Now of course, we have a market wondering how bad the hit
to banks may be, and we have entire nations selling portions of
their sovereign funds to shore up their declining cash flows and be
able to fund their government commitments. All of which are
driving down the markets, rightfully so I might add since equities
had gotten too expensive. The Fed of course has for the time being
taken the punch bowl away, small impact to the economy as it is,
has changed the psychology of investors which are looking at bad
news as bad news. I say refreshing! At least until more QE is
announced, which BTW, I would not count on, unless we have a
serious recession. Not a prediction just a gut
feeling.
All this said, I do believe we hit a bottom when we have a
significant number of frakers declaring bankruptcies and it is
better understood how much of an impact to the Financial sector
this represents.
I say this because that would signal a mission
accomplished by the Saudis, which then would continue to seek
a commitment from most oil producers for cuts to restore
stability to the oil sector.