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OT - networking et
al
<p><p>OT</p> <p>First off, say an
article in which a genius analyst said that patient investors will
be rewarded in this market, unless the US has a recession. Talk
about CYA.</p> <p>Not sure there's a good answer to
this question, but having bought a number of the optical networkers
on the way down, I wonder: What would a bear market for optical
networkers look like? One could answer 'just like this' - but
that ignores the undeniable secular trend that bandwidth can do
nothing but grow. So, I suppose one could answer - 'they're
undevalued - baby/bathwater deal' - but what I'm left wondering is
this: Is there a going-forward scenario under which the current (or
lower) valuations would be 'fair value'? Further capex spending
cuts by their customers? Short-term/long-term buildout plans
scrapped? Given that NFLX was up on subscriber growth, is that not
incongruent with beating these stocks like they're oil and gas
companies? Puzzling.</p> <p>Otherwise, the feeling of
amazement at how fast and how far stocks have fallen has a kind of
corollary - the amazement at the prices and speed at which the Fed
helped the DOW rocket to nearly 20,000. Did we just get 'used' to
skyrocketing stock prices/valuations without underlying substance?
Or is there really a 'Bear in the woods' - BRIC slowdown, strong
dollar, all the usual suspects now suddenly being paid attention
to.</p> <p>Ah, the DOW is now coming back from -500+ to
about -150. World economics must've changed since this morning.
INFN earlier almost 50% off its high? What?</p>
<p> </p> <p> </p>
<p> </p></p>
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Jamok, there are so many possible explanations for the fall. I
don't just mean the obvious growth fears, because the market has
climbed that wall of worry for a long time. The FANG type stocks,
and how sad is it that they even get an acronym, like why bother
with any sort of due diligence, just buy FANG every day, those were
the last bastion of strength. Those winners were immediately sold
off at the start of the new tax year, so what's left for
leadership? So add in leverage, fear that the dip wasn't promptly
bought, and throw in a dash of losing faith in central bankers, and
a rapid sell-off doesn't seem that surprising. Like you said, baby
and bathwater. I am surprised how long it's taken to form a relief
rally though, which should recover maybe half the losses before the
selling resumes. Maybe yesterday was the start, recovering from the
lows and green so far today.
I laughed at the comment in some article I saw this morning,
saying the EU didn't so much kick the can down the road with
Greece, they kicked the can uphill so that it keeps rolling back
down, and it's indicative of their failure to really deal with
problems, which is scary now considering the migrant crisis.
finance.yahoo.com/ne...8.html
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Author:
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Jester
Debunker
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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01/21/16 at 8:35 AM CST
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Jester,
Yes, so many layers of 'haze' - and I hadn't thought of
connecting the EU's problems further complicated with the immigrant
crises. I don't agree that at the end of the day, the immigrants
will be a 'net positive' for Europe. Perhaps in terms of a certain
proportion becomes 'slave labor' - a ready pool of cheap labor to
do jobs others don't want to.
The 'kicking the ball uphill' quote made me lol. While Soro
might be considered to be a saner version of Jim Rogers, and IIRC
he has from time to time made dire predictions that didn't test
out, his opinion that Europe will fail is probably worth noting. I
can see a scenario in which, somewhat like a big rock concert, each
following act gives a good reason for the market to retreat: China
growth slows, Europe's 'gravity' isn't strong enough to keep it
from flying apart, Iran declares nuclear war on Israel, then
retracts as it remembers it has no nuclear weapons (relief rally),
Israel wheels a criuse missle through Iran's Ayatollah's living
room...no lack of instigators going forward, that's fairly
certain.
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Author:
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Jam
ok
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Subject:
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Off Topic
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Sentiment:
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Neutral
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Date:
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01/21/16 at 12:47 PM CST
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